NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	6.0 [627]		MVP	Ronnie Brewer (UTA): +16.2%
Utah Jazz	97		Comeback	9.4 [423]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -11.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	19	56%	0.08	2	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Linas Kleiza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Nene	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	48%	0.00	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Johan Petro	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	17	35%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	16	50%	0.04	6	-0.14	8	62%	-0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.06	-0.02	9	59%	0.16	0	0.00	9	89%	0.03
CJ Miles	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	6	71%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	87%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	14	64%	0.18	6	-0.15	11	82%	0.03
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Brevin Knight	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	47%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	12	40%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	12	35%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.0	37.0	19.0	36.5	2.8	36.2	160.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +39.9%

UTA +7.4%

UTA +5.3%

DEN -2.0%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.4	15.5	100.0	106.6	106.4
season	14.4	15.3		109.5	107.7
opponent	15.0	15.7		105.4	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.6	17.6	15.0	13.9	15.3
UTA	18.1	14.4	13.8	19.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	58	58	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.22	10	-16	26	14.7	16.3	-1.63	17.9	13.6	4.31
Johan Petro	22	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.03	-6	0	-6	14.7	15.5	-0.75	14.9	16.8	-1.90
Chris Andersen	39	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.14	-1	-5	4	16.1	14.7	1.32	16.1	16.6	-0.48
Dahntay Jones	15	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	15.2	15.3	-0.12	14.8	16.7	-1.86
J.R. Smith	77	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-10	14	14.8	18.3	-3.53	16.7	14.6	2.10
Renaldo Balkman	43	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	3	-12	16.6	14.1	2.48	15.4	17.2	-1.76
Nene	73	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	15.1	16.2	-1.08	16.4	16.2	0.23
Linas Kleiza	55	55	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	15.0	15.7	-0.75	16.3	16.5	-0.25
Chauncey Billups	73	74	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.16	-14	8	-22	15.8	13.3	2.52	16.2	16.8	-0.58

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deron Williams	80	82	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	0	6	16.7	13.9	2.78	14.9	18.9	-3.99
Mehmet Okur	75	76	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.24	8	-2	10	16.6	15.3	1.26	14.7	18.4	-3.72
Carlos Boozer	66	67	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.30	5	1	4	16.5	16.0	0.48	15.0	16.1	-1.07
Ronnie Brewer	69	69	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	0	6	16.8	14.9	1.90	14.6	17.6	-3.03
CJ Miles	42	44	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	-2	10	15.4	17.2	-1.76	15.5	15.1	0.39
Andrei Kirilenko	46	45	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	6	-6	16.8	15.9	0.83	15.6	15.0	0.51
Paul Millsap	29	29	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	2	2	15.8	16.6	-0.77	16.6	14.7	1.89
Kyle Korver	27	25	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	8	-10	15.7	16.6	-0.97	16.1	15.0	1.14
Ronnie Price	2	2	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	4	-2	2.0	16.7	-14.67	16.5	15.3	1.23
Brevin Knight	9	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	8	-10	16.6	16.3	0.23	19.6	14.9	4.63
Matt Harpring	10	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	11	-16	16.1	16.4	-0.28	19.4	14.8	4.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.26,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 97, POR 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
POR 100, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.78,0.97,1,1	93.0%
MIN 95, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.62,0.62,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,1,1	92.8%