NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Excitement	5.7 [704]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +26.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	108		Comeback	7.1 [323]		LVP	Corey Brewer (MIN): -12.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Juan Barea	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.03	-0.05	16	60%	0.17	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Chase Budinger	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.02	21	61%	0.15	4	-0.12	9	78%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Gorgui Dieng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Alexey Shved	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Price	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robbie Hummel	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	8	12%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Ricky Rubio	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	6	38%	-0.02	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	11	27%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.25	0.07	0.05	17	82%	0.30	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.02	15	71%	0.24	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.01	13	50%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Claver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Earl Watson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	14	50%	0.03	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	30.2	15.8	21.8	2.5	33.7	130.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +56.8%

POR +3.9%

MIN -11.0%

POR +3.3%

MIN -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	POR	NBA	MIN	POR	NBA
this game	17.5	13.8	15.1	105.4	117.4	105.2
season	14.6	15.1		107.3	109.6
opponent	14.8	14.5		106.5	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	19.2	19.7	16.1	17.5
POR	14.5	12.1	14.6	13.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robbie Hummel	29	28	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.21	10	-21	31	17.3	17.6	-0.29	13.7	13.8	-0.02
Gorgui Dieng	27	26	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-19	27	17.6	17.5	0.12	13.6	13.8	-0.20
A.J. Price	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	15.6	17.7	-2.13	15.1	13.6	1.50
Alexey Shved	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	15.6	17.7	-2.13	15.1	13.6	1.50
Chase Budinger	44	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	-4	-3	17.7	17.4	0.27	14.3	13.2	1.14
Ricky Rubio	43	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	-3	-5	17.9	17.2	0.68	14.1	13.4	0.68
Shabazz Muhammad	43	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.25	1	-12	13	16.7	18.3	-1.68	13.3	14.2	-0.90
Jose Juan Barea	42	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	-4	-3	17.5	17.6	-0.08	13.1	14.3	-1.11
Dante Cunningham	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	0	-11	18.1	17.0	1.06	14.1	13.4	0.75
Luc Mbah a Moute	44	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	0	-11	17.8	17.3	0.53	12.8	14.6	-1.73
Kevin Love	65	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	8	-27	17.5	17.6	-0.12	13.8	13.6	0.20
Corey Brewer	62	61	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.01	-19	8	-27	17.8	17.0	0.76	13.9	13.5	0.37

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Robinson	61	63	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.07	19	-8	27	13.2	14.8	-1.58	18.4	15.7	2.66
Mo Williams	55	53	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	0	11	13.0	14.8	-1.80	17.6	17.4	0.19
Nicolas Batum	70	69	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	0	11	13.8	13.5	0.28	17.5	17.7	-0.26
Will Barton	27	28	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	6	-1	13.7	13.8	-0.03	17.8	17.4	0.40
Victor Claver	46	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	14	-17	14.1	13.4	0.65	17.2	17.9	-0.76
Wesley Matthews	66	65	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	5	1	13.5	14.5	-1.03	17.2	18.5	-1.33
Robin Lopez	55	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	3	5	13.9	13.6	0.28	17.7	17.4	0.32
Damian Lillard	56	57	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	8	-5	14.6	12.5	2.03	17.5	17.7	-0.23
Dorell Wright	14	13	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	10	-9	14.2	13.7	0.53	15.8	17.8	-2.07
Earl Watson	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	16.5	13.7	2.80	12.0	17.7	-5.67
Allen Crabbe	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	16.5	13.7	2.80	12.0	17.7	-5.67
CJ McCollum	6	8	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.03	-6	17	-23	14.5	13.7	0.79	20.7	17.2	3.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 90, IND 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
POR 100, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.78,0.97,1,1	93.8%
CLE 103, NYK 120	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,1,1,1	93.4%