NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	9.4 [100]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +49.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	113		Comeback	7.5 [194]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -22.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.50	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.47,0.5	0.11	0.39	-0.00	14	69%	0.57	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.10
Carmelo Anthony	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0,0,-0.11,0.23	0.04	0.19	0.00	29	51%	0.29	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	-0.00	6	75%	0.19	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Nene	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.00	0.02	13	74%	0.21	2	-0.13	1	0%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	0.02	9	40%	-0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.11	0.02	19	65%	0.29	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.07
Jeff Green	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	-0.02	0.00	14	83%	0.27	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	8	61%	0.15	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	7	63%	0.11	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	8	44%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	6	14%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.13,-0.21,-0.1,-0.22	-0.22	-0.04	-0.16	0.02	17	49%	-0.07	4	-0.16	7	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.4	32.8	15.6	22.4	2.5	36.0	139.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +60.0%

OKC -8.4%

OKC -15.9%

DEN +12.2%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.3	15.0	15.5	114.0	116.5	106.4
season	14.4	14.9		109.5	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.8	14.3	16.6	14.5	14.3
OKC	16.4	10.0	16.1	19.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	77	77	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.44	9	-8	17	14.8	12.6	2.20	16.1	10.9	5.15
J.R. Smith	61	59	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	-5	11	13.5	15.5	-2.01	15.1	14.8	0.33
Linas Kleiza	54	52	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	-1	3	14.0	14.6	-0.57	13.4	16.8	-3.34
Anthony Carter	74	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.63	-6	7	-13	14.6	13.3	1.29	14.2	17.1	-2.85
Carmelo Anthony	83	80	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	-3	7	14.5	13.0	1.52	15.5	12.4	3.13
Chris Andersen	42	40	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	0	1	13.7	14.6	-0.90	15.8	14.4	1.38
Renaldo Balkman	42	40	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	-2	5	14.0	14.4	-0.37	16.0	14.2	1.80
Dahntay Jones	47	47	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	4	-7	15.0	13.6	1.36	15.3	14.7	0.56
Johan Petro	20	19	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	12	-23	12.9	14.6	-1.64	10.4	16.1	-5.68

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	49	49	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.26	10	-11	21	13.6	16.4	-2.78	14.0	14.5	-0.59
Nenad Krstic	48	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.27	5	-6	11	15.2	14.8	0.43	13.8	14.7	-0.85
Joe Smith	30	30	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	2	-5	14.5	15.2	-0.71	13.2	14.7	-1.51
Jeff Green	84	89	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.50	6	-7	13	14.6	17.5	-2.85	14.9	9.3	5.60
Nick Collison	49	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.20	-6	5	-11	14.8	15.2	-0.43	14.7	13.8	0.85
Kevin Durant	85	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.27	-4	3	-7	15.4	12.1	3.32	14.3	13.9	0.39
Russell Westbrook	70	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	6	-13	15.2	14.5	0.65	14.2	14.4	-0.23
Kyle Weaver	70	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.47	-6	5	-11	15.9	12.5	3.42	14.1	14.6	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, NJN 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.36,0.55,0.42,0	90.8%
IND 97, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.43,0	89.8%
SEA 105, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.46,0.57,0.17,0	89.1%