NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	94		Excitement	6.3 [552]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +19.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves	86		Comeback	1.4 [533]		LVP	Randy Foye (MIN): -26.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.19	0.13	0.10	0.03	15	65%	0.21	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	13	57%	0.11	2	-0.04	14	79%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	73%	0.05	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Acie Law	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	13	56%	0.07	3	-0.08	8	37%	-0.08
Maurice Evans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	45%	0.01	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.03
Al Horford	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.11	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.04	-0.01	10	85%	0.16	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	2	125%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	17	45%	-0.01	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.07
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	10	14%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.20	-0.02	-0.01	9	0%	-0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.16	-0.10	-0.00	19	33%	-0.14	3	-0.12	8	62%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	29.8	17.0	30.3	2.7	39.2	143.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +37.4%

ATL +9.0%

MIN -12.4%

ATL +14.1%

ATL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIN	NBA	ATL	MIN	NBA
this game	13.8	16.4	15.5	97.9	90.5	106.4
season	15.8	15.8		106.7	104.3
opponent	15.1	16.1		109.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.7	15.1	12.7	13.7	13.8
MIN	17.0	16.9	17.3	14.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	85	84	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-3	14	13.3	16.9	-3.57	16.3	17.3	-0.96
Ronald Murray	64	63	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	-2	12	12.7	15.9	-3.23	16.2	16.9	-0.73
Zaza Pachulia	46	46	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	-8	24	13.2	14.3	-1.11	17.2	15.7	1.42
Mike Bibby	76	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.20	6	2	4	13.8	13.4	0.38	16.2	17.1	-0.86
Josh Smith	79	79	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	5	-2	13.7	14.1	-0.38	16.2	17.4	-1.22
Al Horford	49	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	7	-6	14.6	12.9	1.72	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Acie Law	26	26	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	7	-6	14.4	13.5	0.87	17.1	16.2	0.96
Maurice Evans	48	46	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	12	-16	14.7	12.8	1.87	16.3	16.5	-0.23
Solomon Jones	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	12	-16	17.6	13.4	4.12	17.7	16.3	1.40

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad McCants	32	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.31	9	-17	26	14.8	17.3	-2.47	13.5	13.9	-0.36
Sebastian Telfair	44	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-5	2	18.0	15.1	2.86	14.8	12.9	1.93
Kevin Love	59	58	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-7	6	17.1	15.3	1.75	14.4	12.8	1.59
Brian Cardinal	25	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-5	2	16.0	16.6	-0.52	11.7	14.5	-2.80
Rodney Carney	12	12	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	0	-8	16.7	16.4	0.38	12.5	13.9	-1.43
Mike Miller	68	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-4	0	15.9	17.7	-1.74	13.4	14.6	-1.22
Randy Foye	89	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-3	-2	16.1	21.0	-4.89	14.0	10.0	4.00
Al Jefferson	67	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	4	-16	16.5	16.3	0.14	13.6	14.0	-0.35
Ryan Gomes	79	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	5	-18	16.5	15.8	0.73	13.8	13.6	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.07,0.22,0.15,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 113, NJN 105	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.1,0.04,0,0	94.4%
TOR 96, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.21,0.16,0.27,0.1,0.21,0.05,0.16,0	94.1%
POR 79, SAS 75	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.16,0.15,0	93.9%