NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	79		Excitement	5.5 [676]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (POR): +10.8%
San Antonio Spurs	75		Comeback	1.1 [231]		LVP	Monty Williams (SAS): -21.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	21	61%	0.15	3	-0.04	4	50%	0.03
Alton Lister	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Grant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	15	42%	-0.02	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Rider	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	14	47%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	6	43%	-0.01	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Lohaus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	13	54%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	7	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	16	53%	-0.08	2	-0.04	13	77%	0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	17	50%	0.04	4	-0.17	12	58%	-0.04
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.09	-0.00	12	25%	-0.17	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.6	23.2	15.8	22.7	2.0	33.1	123.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +38.4%

POR +5.5%

SAS -9.3%

POR +14.8%

POR +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAS	NBA	POR	SAS	NBA
this game	17.0	17.1	15.6	95.2	87.2	102.5
season	15.9	15.9		101.9	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.4		97.2	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.8	13.5	22.2	18.6	17.0
SAS	17.1	16.4	17.8	17.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Rider	66	66	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.30	9	-5	14	16.6	18.3	-1.67	17.3	16.6	0.61
Rasheed Wallace	76	79	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	16.4	22.9	-6.44	17.5	13.1	4.33
Gary Grant	20	21	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-7	18	12.6	18.3	-5.68	16.8	17.2	-0.47
Alton Lister	23	24	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	-3	10	18.7	16.3	2.34	17.7	16.9	0.76
Kelvin Cato	40	36	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.26	-2	6	-8	17.9	16.1	1.86	17.8	16.6	1.19
Damon Stoudamire	63	65	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.40	-7	11	-18	18.3	12.6	5.68	17.2	16.8	0.47
Brian Grant	48	52	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.21	-2	6	-8	17.5	16.2	1.32	17.3	16.9	0.39
Jermaine O'Neal	14	16	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	-3	10	12.7	17.8	-5.11	15.2	17.6	-2.37
Stacey Augmon	27	29	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	4	-4	17.9	16.5	1.43	15.5	17.9	-2.41
Walt Williams	38	42	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.28	-7	11	-18	16.8	17.1	-0.32	17.0	17.2	-0.27

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Geary	7	6	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-3	2	20.1	16.8	3.29	21.3	16.6	4.71
Carl Herrera	6	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	0	-4	15.2	17.3	-2.10	14.7	17.1	-2.48
Avery Johnson	10	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	0	-4	16.6	17.2	-0.58	16.0	17.1	-1.10
Brad Lohaus	19	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-2	0	19.7	16.4	3.36	16.5	17.1	-0.61
Will Perdue	30	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-3	2	17.3	17.0	0.33	19.2	15.6	3.61
Monty Williams	42	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.28	1	-5	6	15.8	18.4	-2.55	16.5	17.3	-0.86
Jaren Jackson	80	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.46	4	-8	12	16.9	20.0	-3.10	17.3	13.2	4.09
David Robinson	75	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-2	0	17.3	16.2	1.07	16.6	19.6	-3.08
Vinny Del Negro	75	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	3	-10	17.1	17.0	0.13	16.4	20.9	-4.48
Tim Duncan	86	83	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	17.1	0.0	17.12	17.0	0.0	16.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.16,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 107, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	94.5%
ATL 100, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.05,0	94.5%
IND 116, MEM 113	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.15,0.13,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0	94.4%