NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	122		Excitement	6.1 [600]		MVP	Leandro Barbosa (PHX): +32.7%
Phoenix Suns	111		Comeback	1.0 [258]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -19.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.31	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.21	0.11	0.01	14	79%	0.31	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Derrick Rose	0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.15	0.11	-0.00	19	65%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	9	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Andres Nocioni	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	48%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joakim Noah	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.05	6	79%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	16	49%	-0.01	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	14	48%	0.02	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.25	0.08	-0.00	17	78%	0.33	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	9	70%	0.11	0	0.00	9	100%	0.06
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	8	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.08	3	-0.07	9	67%	-0.02
Lou Amundson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.06	0.02	14	50%	0.04	7	-0.24	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.3	29.9	15.8	29.4	2.6	37.2	144.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +22.0%

PHX -9.6%

CHI +10.7%

CHI +25.3%

CHI +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	PHX	NBA	CHI	PHX	NBA
this game	15.9	13.1	15.5	123.2	111.0	106.4
season	14.8	14.1		106.3	112.1
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.9	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.8	15.7	15.6	16.5	15.9
PHX	14.8	13.1	11.1	13.5	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	48	50	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-6	23	17.0	14.8	2.22	13.5	12.7	0.84
Ben Gordon	80	81	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-2	15	15.6	17.1	-1.52	13.4	11.8	1.53
Joakim Noah	56	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	0	11	17.1	14.3	2.70	13.9	12.1	1.81
Derrick Rose	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.19	5	6	-1	16.4	14.9	1.58	13.0	13.2	-0.14
Luol Deng	80	80	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	4	3	15.9	15.9	-0.02	12.1	16.8	-4.65
Thabo Sefolosha	45	46	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	9	-7	16.2	15.6	0.51	13.2	13.0	0.25
Aaron Gray	33	33	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	9	-7	15.0	16.3	-1.27	13.9	12.7	1.19
Kirk Hinrich	53	53	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.02	5	6	-1	14.8	17.1	-2.34	12.6	13.6	-0.97
Andres Nocioni	36	37	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.04	-7	18	-25	14.2	16.8	-2.60	12.5	13.4	-0.86

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Amundson	9	10	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-11	11	14.0	13.0	1.01	12.6	16.2	-3.65
Steve Nash	79	79	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-9	7	12.1	16.9	-4.78	16.1	15.0	1.10
Grant Hill	85	84	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-8	5	12.6	15.9	-3.36	16.0	15.2	0.80
Leandro Barbosa	69	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-8	5	12.6	14.2	-1.61	15.5	16.7	-1.19
Matt Barnes	30	30	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-3	-5	15.2	12.2	3.08	15.0	16.3	-1.26
Jason Richardson	69	68	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	5	-21	13.1	13.0	0.16	15.9	15.7	0.20
Amar'e Stoudemire	90	89	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	-1	-9	13.0	14.2	-1.24	16.0	14.8	1.20
Shaquille O'Neal	69	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.18	-13	2	-15	14.4	10.1	4.28	16.5	14.5	1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.38,0.18,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.2,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 121, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
ATL 95, NJN 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.44,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.21,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%
CHA 91, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.04,0,0,0,0	93.3%