NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	99		Excitement	5.6 [718]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): +28.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	88		Comeback	1.1 [760]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -15.9%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.02	8	62%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.06	0.01	8	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.06	0.00	14	49%	0.10	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.06	0.03	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.04	15	72%	0.09	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	48%	0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Brook Lopez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Josh Boone	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.13	0.13	-0.02	14	68%	0.31	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	82%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Marko Jaric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.04	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	55%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	9	46%	-0.01	3	-0.10	10	70%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	17	31%	-0.11	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	32.2	15.0	25.3	2.6	34.2	134.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +35.9%

MEM -6.2%

NJN +6.7%

NJN +15.2%

MEM -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MEM	NBA	NJN	MEM	NBA
this game	17.6	15.7	15.5	115.1	101.1	106.4
season	16.0	16.1		106.5	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.5		107.6	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	16.0	15.9	19.8	19.2	17.6
MEM	17.5	12.4	18.1	16.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	70	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-1	13	17.0	19.9	-2.92	16.0	14.7	1.22
Jarvis Hayes	39	38	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-2	15	18.1	17.1	1.00	15.7	15.8	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	38	36	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	3	5	17.9	17.3	0.65	15.2	16.2	-0.99
Keyon Dooling	45	46	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	6	-1	19.0	15.9	3.12	14.6	17.1	-2.51
Brook Lopez	56	56	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	2	7	17.0	18.6	-1.60	15.5	16.2	-0.64
Josh Boone	30	31	0.20	0.29	-0.09	0.15	2	9	-7	18.6	17.0	1.60	16.2	15.5	0.64
Vince Carter	61	62	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.16	12	-1	13	17.3	18.3	-1.02	16.6	13.6	3.07
Chris Douglas-Roberts	17	18	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	14	-17	17.7	17.5	0.18	10.2	17.2	-6.97
Ryan Anderson	39	41	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	11	-11	16.6	18.3	-1.73	17.0	14.7	2.32
Bobby Simmons	35	36	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	14	-17	17.2	17.8	-0.56	17.2	14.7	2.56

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	10	9	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-17	23	10.7	16.4	-5.70	19.2	17.4	1.86
Darrell Arthur	40	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-8	5	18.0	13.8	4.26	17.6	17.5	0.15
Darius Miles	28	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-12	13	13.2	16.9	-3.68	17.9	17.4	0.50
Mike Conley	60	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.04	-9	-2	-7	16.4	14.4	2.00	17.3	18.2	-0.97
Rudy Gay	67	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-4	-3	16.3	13.8	2.53	17.8	16.8	0.99
Kyle Lowry	27	27	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-9	7	14.4	16.4	-2.00	18.2	17.3	0.97
Marc Gasol	59	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.00	-12	1	-13	16.9	13.2	3.68	17.4	17.9	-0.50
Quinton Ross	26	24	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	-3	-5	15.5	15.9	-0.41	16.9	17.8	-0.95
Hakim Warrick	47	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-3	-5	13.8	18.0	-4.26	17.5	17.6	-0.15
O.J. Mayo	71	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.13	-13	2	-15	16.0	14.6	1.45	17.4	18.4	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 109, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.26,0.34,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.31,0.38,0.24,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0	93.9%
CHA 91, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.04,0,0,0,0	93.6%
IND 106, CHH 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.13,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.4%