NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	106		Excitement	5.5 [722]		MVP	Linas Kleiza (DEN): +20.7%
Denver Nuggets	88		Comeback	2.1 [447]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -16.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.18	0.07	0.05	16	74%	0.26	2	-0.05	10	80%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.00	-0.04	15	66%	0.20	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.02	12	79%	0.23	4	-0.09	5	80%	-0.00
Courtney Lee	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	11	54%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	15	39%	-0.05	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.18	0.06	0.02	13	81%	0.25	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.06	-0.03	17	46%	0.08	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.16	-0.00	-0.07	13	30%	-0.04	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.02	-0.05	10	20%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	15	29%	-0.14	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.2	2.6	34.7	15.8	28.2	1.8	28.2	142.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +52.0%

DEN -3.4%

DEN -10.6%

ORL +7.2%

ORL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.6	14.1	15.5	114.0	92.6	106.4
season	15.3	14.4		107.3	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.9	16.1	17.3	18.5	16.6
DEN	14.5	13.4	14.2	14.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Courtney Lee	75	77	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.07	22	-4	26	16.7	16.2	0.47	14.1	14.0	0.08
Rashard Lewis	72	74	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.10	18	0	18	16.3	17.6	-1.31	14.7	12.0	2.71
Hedo Turkoglu	58	60	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	6	6	17.1	15.8	1.33	14.0	14.1	-0.04
Tony Battie	28	29	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.12	6	12	-6	18.2	15.9	2.26	11.9	15.0	-3.17
Anthony Johnson	35	36	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.02	10	8	2	18.7	15.3	3.39	12.2	15.2	-3.01
Dwight Howard	61	63	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	6	6	16.8	16.2	0.68	15.2	11.8	3.39
Jameer Nelson	58	59	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	10	-2	15.3	18.7	-3.39	15.2	12.2	3.01
Keith Bogans	29	28	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	12	-6	15.8	17.0	-1.18	14.7	13.8	0.87
Marcin Gortat	25	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	18	-18	15.1	17.1	-2.03	11.9	14.8	-2.93
JJ Redick	24	25	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	22	-26	16.1	16.8	-0.70	13.4	14.3	-0.95

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Renaldo Balkman	17	16	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-18	18	13.4	14.2	-0.79	18.2	16.3	1.99
Sonny Weems	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-17	16	11.5	14.2	-2.74	22.5	16.2	6.30
Johan Petro	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-17	16	11.5	14.2	-2.74	22.5	16.2	6.30
Nene	32	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	-10	2	16.3	12.9	3.34	15.8	17.0	-1.26
Anthony Carter	45	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-13	8	12.2	15.7	-3.50	16.1	17.0	-0.97
Kenyon Martin	68	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-9	0	14.9	12.0	2.83	15.8	18.8	-3.01
Chauncey Billups	73	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-8	-2	14.3	13.1	1.21	15.9	19.0	-3.04
Dahntay Jones	30	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-5	-8	15.0	13.6	1.42	17.0	16.4	0.64
Chris Andersen	56	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-9	0	12.7	16.0	-3.29	16.5	16.7	-0.13
Linas Kleiza	74	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	-6	-6	13.2	17.0	-3.77	16.8	15.9	0.96
J.R. Smith	68	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.18	-22	4	-26	15.3	10.9	4.49	17.1	15.4	1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 105, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0	95.0%
CHI 105, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
CLE 93, NYK 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.18,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%