NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	10.3 [56]		MVP	Troy Murphy (IND): +38.9%
Indiana Pacers	110		Comeback	11.8 [104]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -24.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Stuckey	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.04	0.05	20	68%	0.22	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.26,0.26,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.08	0.00	6	83%	0.21	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Allen Iverson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.13,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	19	50%	0.08	4	-0.10	8	62%	-0.06
Amir Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	13	35%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	12	30%	-0.17	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.08
Rasheed Wallace	-0.24	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.24	-0.00	-0.17	0.07	19	42%	-0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.15	0.26	0.02	9	86%	0.42	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.17	0.01	13	70%	0.34	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.09,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.04	0.16	-0.01	20	47%	0.21	0	0.00	11	91%	0.07
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	5	61%	0.10	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.07
Brandon Rush	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	6	17%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	0.00	14	41%	-0.02	3	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.03	-0.12	0.04	12	43%	-0.15	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.9	15.7	24.6	2.5	34.8	1.6	17.2	152.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +63.9%

IND +22.9%

DET -27.5%

DET -10.2%

IND +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	IND	NBA	DET	IND	NBA
this game	17.1	13.7	15.5	101.9	107.8	106.4
season	16.9	14.1		104.9	106.5
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.7	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	16.7	14.6	17.4	22.1	14.4	17.1
IND	14.7	14.2	13.2	13.9	11.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	28	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	-1	-2	17.7	16.9	0.78	14.5	13.4	1.04
Amir Johnson	32	33	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.15	-8	4	-12	17.4	17.0	0.43	15.0	13.1	1.82
Richard Hamilton	60	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-1	-2	16.4	18.0	-1.55	13.8	13.7	0.15
Rodney Stuckey	89	87	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.38	4	-8	12	17.5	14.9	2.62	13.6	14.5	-0.94
Tayshaun Prince	89	87	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-6	8	17.4	15.1	2.30	13.6	14.5	-0.86
Antonio McDyess	57	56	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	1	-6	17.2	17.0	0.15	13.6	13.9	-0.32
Rasheed Wallace	79	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.52	-1	-3	2	16.8	18.0	-1.23	13.4	14.7	-1.34
Allen Iverson	86	83	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.44	-6	2	-8	16.8	18.8	-2.02	13.6	14.2	-0.58

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Ford	54	56	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.57	8	-4	12	13.9	13.5	0.37	16.4	17.9	-1.47
Jeff Foster	59	63	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.49	6	-2	8	13.6	13.9	-0.30	17.7	16.2	1.46
Danny Granger	87	88	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-1	6	13.6	14.5	-0.86	17.2	16.7	0.49
Mike Dunleavy	65	64	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-1	6	13.1	14.8	-1.69	17.5	16.4	1.11
Troy Murphy	87	88	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	3	-2	13.6	14.7	-1.17	17.4	15.5	1.90
Rasho Nesterovic	40	40	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	2	0	14.4	13.3	1.13	15.5	18.1	-2.57
Brandon Rush	8	9	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	3	-2	16.9	13.5	3.41	19.8	16.9	2.93
Stephen Graham	39	41	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	9	-14	14.8	13.1	1.76	16.1	17.7	-1.58
Jarrett Jack	71	71	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.25	-3	7	-10	13.3	14.7	-1.45	17.4	16.5	0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.29,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.31,0.24,0.46,0.31,0.16,0.33,0.26,0.54,0.69,0.79,0.76,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, CHH 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.34,0.41,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.89,1,1	92.7%
TOR 87, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.16,0.46,0.45,0.71,0.86,0.95,1	90.9%
VAN 116, PHX 122	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.66,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.19,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.2,0.26,0.54,0.47,0.64,0.77,0.96,1	89.6%