NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	7.9 [260]		MVP	Rodney Carney (MIN): +33.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	106		Comeback	8.6 [165]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (MIL): -26.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.34	0.21	0.13	0.01	15	78%	0.36	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.11
Michael Redd	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.19	0.15	0.03	-0.00	24	60%	0.22	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	8	78%	0.12	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.11
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.27	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.27	0.01	-0.29	-0.01	13	46%	-0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.18	0.16	-0.00	11	81%	0.37	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.03
Randy Foye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.18,0.21,0.12	0.12	-0.02	0.12	-0.02	12	44%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.03	0.02	8	73%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	83%	0.06	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	11	59%	0.17	5	-0.18	7	71%	-0.01
Craig Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	20	43%	-0.02	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	0.2	32.5	15.4	26.4	2.5	33.3	134.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +42.1%

MIN +2.4%

MIN +24.7%

MIL -22.3%

MIN +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIN	NBA	MIL	MIN	NBA
this game	14.8	16.3	15.5	113.0	114.0	106.4
season	15.0	15.8		104.9	104.3
opponent	15.1	15.6		109.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	11.7	14.4	15.0	18.7	14.8
MIN	18.3	16.9	15.0	14.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	36	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-3	4	14.1	15.3	-1.20	16.7	16.0	0.67
Luke Ridnour	68	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.50	11	-13	24	15.1	14.0	1.16	16.4	16.1	0.25
Charlie Villanueva	40	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	6	-14	14.0	15.4	-1.35	16.3	16.4	-0.10
Charlie Bell	33	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	9	-20	13.8	15.4	-1.55	15.5	16.8	-1.29
Richard Jefferson	81	82	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.50	7	-9	16	15.0	13.2	1.86	16.8	13.0	3.76
Luc Mbah a Moute	46	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.52	7	-9	16	15.5	14.1	1.46	16.7	15.9	0.88
Ramon Sessions	24	24	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	11	-24	14.0	15.1	-1.16	16.1	16.4	-0.25
Michael Redd	80	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-3	4	14.9	14.2	0.65	16.1	17.9	-1.81
Andrew Bogut	52	52	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.33	-5	3	-8	15.4	14.0	1.40	15.8	16.9	-1.10

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Carney	58	57	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.38	8	-6	14	15.5	17.7	-2.16	15.4	13.8	1.59
Ryan Gomes	60	60	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.51	3	-1	4	17.1	14.9	2.13	14.5	15.4	-0.91
Sebastian Telfair	79	78	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.49	3	-1	4	16.1	17.3	-1.15	15.1	13.2	1.89
Randy Foye	57	56	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.54	-2	4	-6	16.9	15.4	1.42	15.0	14.6	0.38
Kevin Love	44	43	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.10	9	-7	16	14.9	17.6	-2.66	15.7	14.0	1.70
Brian Cardinal	25	25	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	1	0	15.2	16.7	-1.52	14.0	15.1	-1.06
Mike Miller	56	56	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.16	5	-3	8	15.9	17.0	-1.10	14.3	15.6	-1.35
Al Jefferson	61	60	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.26	-10	12	-22	17.3	14.3	3.00	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Craig Smith	25	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	9	-16	17.7	15.8	1.93	13.5	15.3	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.26,0.45,0.68,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 101, BKN 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.27,0.2,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.38,0.63,0.85,0.58,1	91.9%
BOS 83, WAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.31,0.55,0.77,0.58,1	91.4%
LAC 93, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.55,0.67,0.9,1	91.1%