NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	113		Excitement	1.7 [1303]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +8.1%
Chicago Bulls	94		Comeback	1.0 [1119]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -8.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.00	-0.06	17	58%	0.10	4	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	79%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	7	68%	0.04	2	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	0.00	0.07	9	64%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	7	71%	0.02	1	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	16	53%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
JJ Redick	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	58%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	8	56%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brian Cook	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.10	0.00	-0.08	7	21%	-0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.15	0.00	0.12	6	76%	0.03	0	0.00	13	85%	-0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	10	30%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Simmons	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	5	75%	-0.01	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	9	50%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	13	41%	0.00	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	0.00	0.10	12	58%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	0.03	17	47%	-0.04	4	-0.04	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.4	30.4	15.7	26.0	2.5	24.6	126.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +34.7%

ORL +0.5%

ORL +6.3%

ORL +6.7%

ORL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.6	13.9	15.5	118.9	100.0	106.4
season	15.3	14.8		107.3	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		107.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.9	16.4	16.4	16.7	16.6
CHI	15.2	15.6	12.9	12.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	56	55	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.24	22	-3	25	16.4	16.8	-0.41	14.1	13.6	0.46
Rashard Lewis	60	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	5	9	16.5	16.7	-0.12	14.5	12.7	1.83
Dwight Howard	55	56	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	2	15	16.8	16.3	0.53	14.6	12.8	1.88
Hedo Turkoglu	61	59	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.18	17	2	15	16.2	17.3	-1.11	14.1	13.6	0.50
Jameer Nelson	40	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.19	16	3	13	16.2	16.9	-0.65	14.4	13.5	0.90
Anthony Johnson	55	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	16	-13	16.9	16.2	0.65	13.5	14.4	-0.90
Courtney Lee	53	51	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	16	-13	17.1	15.9	1.25	13.0	15.0	-2.02
Marcin Gortat	40	38	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	17	-15	16.3	16.8	-0.53	12.8	14.6	-1.88
Tony Battie	5	5	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.14	8	11	-3	17.8	16.5	1.29	16.6	13.7	2.87
JJ Redick	39	40	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.21	-4	23	-27	16.8	16.4	0.41	13.6	14.1	-0.49
Brian Cook	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	22	-25	15.8	16.7	-0.86	12.5	14.1	-1.62

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Simmons	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-22	25	12.5	14.1	-1.62	15.8	16.7	-0.86
Lindsey Hunter	41	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-22	25	13.7	14.0	-0.35	17.4	15.9	1.46
Aaron Gray	33	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.18	-12	-7	-5	13.2	14.3	-1.08	15.8	17.0	-1.15
Thabo Sefolosha	59	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-12	5	14.2	13.3	0.91	16.8	16.1	0.69
Andres Nocioni	56	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-16	13	13.8	14.0	-0.24	17.0	15.9	1.08
Larry Hughes	50	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-12	5	13.1	14.8	-1.67	17.1	16.0	1.18
Tyrus Thomas	41	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.18	-16	-3	-13	14.1	13.7	0.34	16.4	16.7	-0.29
Joakim Noah	58	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-12	5	14.2	13.3	0.94	16.7	16.4	0.28
Derrick Rose	57	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.34	-26	7	-33	14.0	13.7	0.25	15.7	17.8	-2.02
Ben Gordon	64	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.19	-23	4	-27	14.5	12.6	1.84	16.2	17.3	-1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 117, ATL 83	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.6%
OKC 110, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.3%
ORL 115, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.2%