NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	103		Excitement	12.6 [14]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +45.3%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	10.1 [257]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -43.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.41,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.19,0.3,0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	22	63%	0.54	4	-0.38	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	9	55%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Hakim Warrick	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.04	-0.03	10	67%	0.16	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.04
Darrell Arthur	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Marc Gasol	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	13	48%	0.03	1	-0.08	5	60%	-0.14
Kyle Lowry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.08
Rudy Gay	-0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.31,-0.4,-0.44	-0.13	-0.32	-0.01	18	32%	-0.38	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.12

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.04,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.45	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.00	26	54%	0.55	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.09
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.00	9	56%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	-0.07	0.01	19	62%	0.06	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.01
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.10	-0.00	16	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	29.2	2.4	25.4	15.7	28.1	2.7	32.2	2.5	17.1	2.5	14.7	172.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +12.5%

SAS +11.1%

MEM -27.1%

SAS +63.2%

MEM -9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	18.4	16.2	15.5	101.0	107.1	106.4
season	16.1	16.4		101.7	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.3		103.2	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MEM	21.2	16.0	17.9	18.8	18.9	18.4
SAS	16.7	16.7	14.0	18.2	15.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakim Warrick	42	41	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.01	12	-15	27	16.8	19.6	-2.77	17.2	15.4	1.82
Kyle Lowry	44	44	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-4	5	18.0	18.8	-0.82	16.3	16.1	0.22
Darrell Arthur	30	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.09	-4	1	-5	17.9	18.7	-0.72	15.5	16.4	-0.91
Greg Buckner	22	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	0	-3	17.6	18.7	-1.08	16.3	16.1	0.25
Marc Gasol	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.53	2	-5	7	18.9	17.4	1.56	16.4	15.5	0.91
O.J. Mayo	93	90	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-2	1	18.3	20.3	-2.08	16.1	16.2	-0.08
Mike Conley	58	55	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.45	-4	1	-5	18.8	18.0	0.82	16.1	16.3	-0.22
Rudy Gay	83	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	3	-9	18.6	17.6	0.99	16.0	16.7	-0.67
Quinton Ross	67	64	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.38	-12	9	-21	19.5	16.4	3.06	15.6	17.2	-1.67

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	67	73	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-7	17	15.5	17.5	-1.95	18.6	18.1	0.42
Kurt Thomas	22	23	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.50	1	2	-1	14.5	16.6	-2.18	18.1	18.5	-0.40
Tony Parker	81	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-2	7	16.1	16.5	-0.43	18.8	16.8	1.97
Bruce Bowen	64	69	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.19	11	-8	19	16.2	16.1	0.06	18.8	17.6	1.23
Roger Mason Jr.	54	52	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	0	3	16.5	15.7	0.81	18.9	18.0	0.87
Ime Udoka	15	15	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	-8	19	12.6	16.8	-4.19	17.7	18.6	-0.91
Michael Finley	68	71	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	7	-11	16.9	14.6	2.24	18.6	18.0	0.59
Tim Duncan	77	79	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.09	2	1	1	16.6	14.5	2.18	18.5	18.1	0.40
Matt Bonner	15	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.02	-4	7	-11	16.1	16.2	-0.02	20.7	18.1	2.58
Anthony Tolliver	13	13	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	9	-15	17.1	16.0	1.07	14.2	19.1	-4.91
George Hill	19	19	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.06	-14	17	-31	17.3	15.9	1.38	15.1	19.2	-4.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.59,0.35,0.48,0.31,0.15,0.43,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.22,0.55,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.77,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 93, LAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.54,0.45,0.12,0.57,0.41,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.81,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.83,1	88.7%
MIA 106, NJN 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.55,0.16,0	87.3%
CHI 96, SAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.47,0.34,0.34,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.08,0	87.2%