NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	7.2 [315]		MVP	Gary Neal (SAS): +28.1%
San Antonio Spurs	89		Comeback	2.0 [383]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -22.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.22,0.22	0.06	0.16	-0.00	23	54%	0.26	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Kyle Korver	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.04	0.02	2	133%	0.16	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	8	75%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	8	50%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.06	0.08	-0.00	9	40%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.00	7	44%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
John Lucas III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.03	1	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	13	31%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.29,0.28	0.28	0.10	0.17	-0.01	15	66%	0.30	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	8	69%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.03	-0.06	21	41%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.04	2	150%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	10	41%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	16	32%	-0.12	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.6	28.0	18.5	24.4	3.5	36.4	145.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +18.9%

CHI +9.2%

CHI +14.2%

CHI +4.7%

CHI +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAS	NBA	CHI	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	14.2	15.6	99.0	90.8	102.8
season	16.0	15.3		104.7	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.9		101.5	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.6	14.3	17.4	14.8	15.3
SAS	14.2	15.7	12.1	15.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	50	50	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-5	17	15.1	15.5	-0.41	14.9	13.6	1.30
Ronnie Brewer	58	59	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-5	17	15.0	15.7	-0.70	15.1	12.9	2.20
Kyle Korver	27	31	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.07	11	-4	15	14.3	15.7	-1.39	14.7	14.0	0.73
Joakim Noah	65	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	4	-1	15.4	15.1	0.26	13.8	15.1	-1.26
Derrick Rose	71	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	6	-5	15.5	14.6	0.93	13.4	16.5	-3.02
Luol Deng	76	74	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	8	-9	15.5	14.6	0.87	14.0	15.1	-1.17
CJ Watson	27	27	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	1	5	14.1	15.7	-1.59	16.2	13.5	2.68
Omer Asik	32	32	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	3	1	15.1	15.4	-0.26	15.1	13.8	1.26
Carlos Boozer	46	47	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	12	-17	15.8	14.8	0.96	13.7	14.8	-1.08
Richard Hamilton	33	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	15	-23	16.2	14.8	1.34	12.8	14.9	-2.13

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	47	48	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.13	5	-12	17	12.8	15.6	-2.80	16.1	14.6	1.51
Danny Green	61	61	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.11	4	-11	15	13.9	14.8	-0.87	15.8	14.5	1.27
Tiago Splitter	39	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-4	1	15.0	13.7	1.25	14.6	15.7	-1.14
Tony Parker	76	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-10	13	13.7	16.1	-2.38	15.8	13.3	2.52
T.J. Ford	18	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-1	-5	16.0	13.8	2.15	12.9	15.7	-2.88
James Anderson	51	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	6	-19	15.1	13.3	1.78	14.9	15.7	-0.75
Richard Jefferson	40	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-12	17	12.7	15.3	-2.53	16.0	14.8	1.24
Tim Duncan	66	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-7	7	13.9	15.0	-1.17	16.1	13.7	2.38
Gary Neal	48	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.17	-14	7	-21	15.2	13.3	1.85	14.4	16.2	-1.80
Matt Bonner	44	43	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.19	-16	9	-25	15.7	13.1	2.65	13.9	16.4	-2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.47,0.34,0.34,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, HOU 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.09,0	92.6%
UTA 109, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.24,0.11,0.15,0.01,0	91.6%
GSW 111, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.39,0.14,0.29,0.06,0.02,0	91.5%