NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	89		Excitement	6.0 [636]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +33.3%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	1.3 [1049]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -17.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.27	0.17	0.14	0.04	20	69%	0.33	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Ronald Murray	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	10	77%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Maurice Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Acie Law	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	45%	0.00	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	8	42%	-0.01	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	11	37%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.33	0.33	0.16	0.19	0.03	12	90%	0.42	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.07
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.09	0.01	11	62%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	15	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.03
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.18	-0.02	-0.03	13	21%	-0.09	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	28.4	15.4	26.7	1.8	34.5	132.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.9%

ATL -12.3%

SAS +35.8%

ATL -22.5%

SAS +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	17.1	15.5	101.1	108.0	106.4
season	15.8	16.4		106.7	106.6
opponent	15.7	16.1		103.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	19.5	14.0	16.9	13.1	15.6
SAS	18.4	17.3	16.6	16.3	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Acie Law	30	29	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.19	11	-17	28	15.4	15.7	-0.34	17.3	17.0	0.31
Al Horford	67	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.41	6	-12	18	14.7	18.6	-3.87	17.4	16.0	1.41
Maurice Evans	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-4	2	15.6	15.6	0.03	17.8	16.5	1.31
Marvin Williams	55	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	1	-8	15.8	15.3	0.56	17.2	16.9	0.26
Ronald Murray	50	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-8	10	14.7	16.8	-2.14	16.0	18.6	-2.65
Josh Smith	43	42	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	5	-16	16.8	14.5	2.33	17.8	16.5	1.31
Zaza Pachulia	33	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	6	-18	18.2	14.1	4.04	16.5	17.4	-0.89
Joe Johnson	65	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.29	-2	-4	2	15.0	17.3	-2.27	17.1	17.2	-0.08
Mike Bibby	55	56	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.16	-15	9	-24	15.7	15.4	0.32	16.9	17.5	-0.62

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	41	40	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-4	14	16.1	18.0	-1.84	15.7	15.6	0.14
Michael Finley	57	58	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	0	6	17.2	16.8	0.41	15.5	15.9	-0.37
Matt Bonner	45	46	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.07	16	-10	26	18.5	15.6	2.93	17.6	13.4	4.20
Manu Ginobili	53	53	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	6	-6	16.7	17.8	-1.11	15.3	16.2	-0.91
Tim Duncan	64	66	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	4	-2	17.2	16.8	0.43	15.4	16.4	-1.05
Fabricio Oberto	24	22	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	2	2	16.8	17.2	-0.43	16.4	15.4	1.05
Roger Mason Jr.	47	48	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.05	8	-2	10	17.6	16.6	0.97	15.7	15.5	0.28
Bruce Bowen	47	45	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.40	-8	14	-22	16.2	18.1	-1.95	14.2	17.1	-2.92
Kurt Thomas	12	12	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	5	-4	15.4	17.4	-1.95	15.4	15.7	-0.24
Ime Udoka	3	3	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	9	-12	14.7	17.2	-2.52	10.3	15.8	-5.48
Tony Parker	47	47	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.11	-6	12	-18	18.0	16.1	1.84	15.8	15.4	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.88,0.79,0.75,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.76,0.96,0.98,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 71, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.7%
TOR 87, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.78,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.95,1	93.7%
ATL 91, CHA 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.73,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.97,0.98,1	93.4%