NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	8.7 [151]		MVP	Steve Blake (POR): +52.6%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	8.2 [146]		LVP	Greg Oden (POR): -26.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Blake	0.53	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.53	0.11	0.42	0.00	14	68%	0.54	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.01	0.02	8	84%	0.13	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Joel Przybilla	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	3	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	3	62%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.11,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.12	0.01	18	53%	-0.00	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Roy	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	16	43%	-0.10	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Greg Oden	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.18,-0.27	-0.07	-0.20	-0.00	10	38%	-0.16	2	-0.11	6	67%	-0.05

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.05	-0.02	18	60%	0.21	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	9	83%	0.25	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	5	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.25	-0.25	0.04	-0.28	0.01	16	53%	-0.21	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.5	27.9	18.6	24.2	2.8	35.1	137.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +16.6%

POR +0.0%

POR +53.8%

TOR -19.2%

TOR -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	TOR	NBA	POR	TOR	NBA
this game	18.0	15.5	15.5	114.0	112.8	106.4
season	16.7	15.1		111.0	105.0
opponent	15.6	16.0		108.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.1	16.3	17.4	21.7	18.0
TOR	12.4	17.2	16.9	16.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	66	65	1.16	-0.66	1.81	0.63	18	-17	35	18.5	16.2	2.27	16.1	13.8	2.30
Steve Blake	57	57	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.43	4	-3	7	18.0	17.9	0.09	15.9	14.7	1.22
Greg Oden	49	48	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-4	9	18.4	17.5	0.88	16.3	14.5	1.74
Brandon Roy	73	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	1	-1	18.1	17.4	0.71	15.9	13.4	2.47
Rudy Fernandez	45	46	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	-5	11	18.6	17.3	1.28	16.0	14.9	1.12
Nicolas Batum	28	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	5	-9	17.0	18.4	-1.41	15.7	15.4	0.24
Sergio Rodriguez	29	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.05	-3	4	-7	17.9	18.0	-0.09	14.7	15.9	-1.22
Joel Przybilla	32	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	5	-9	17.5	18.3	-0.83	14.3	16.3	-2.04
Travis Outlaw	39	40	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.26	-11	12	-23	17.9	18.0	-0.12	14.4	16.5	-2.10
Martell Webster	12	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	7	-13	14.4	18.6	-4.15	11.8	16.1	-4.26

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamario Moon	22	23	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.04	5	-6	11	15.4	15.5	-0.18	19.0	17.6	1.44
Jason Kapono	43	46	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.04	2	-3	5	15.0	16.0	-1.05	17.8	18.2	-0.40
Andrea Bargnani	52	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.09	-7	6	-13	15.9	14.9	0.97	17.8	18.3	-0.51
Joey Graham	39	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.42	10	-11	21	14.6	16.2	-1.62	18.3	17.8	0.55
Will Solomon	19	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	4	-9	13.9	16.0	-2.06	16.5	18.4	-1.94
Jermaine O'Neal	70	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-6	11	15.9	13.9	1.92	17.4	20.7	-3.39
Jose Calderon	67	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-5	9	16.0	13.9	2.06	18.4	16.5	1.94
Anthony Parker	62	62	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.62	-5	4	-9	15.8	14.7	1.16	18.0	18.1	-0.13
Chris Bosh	56	55	-1.00	0.50	-1.51	-0.59	-14	13	-27	15.4	15.7	-0.26	18.5	17.0	1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.26,0.41,0.47,0.75,0.72,0.86,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 102, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.54,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.45,0.84,0.42,0	89.1%
SEA 101, LAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.16,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.43,0.19,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.64,0.84,0.26,0	87.9%
IND 97, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.25,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.68,0.72,0.91,0.95,0	87.4%