NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Excitement	6.3 [556]		MVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): +23.4%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	1.2 [1048]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -15.3%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.07	0.00	8	78%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.02	16	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.09	-0.04	0.05	18	62%	0.11	3	-0.11	12	83%	0.02
Damien Wilkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.01	5	64%	0.04	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	6	25%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	17	44%	-0.08	3	-0.07	7	57%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.13	-0.01	8	79%	0.27	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	-0.03	0.03	24	60%	0.15	4	-0.09	15	67%	-0.06
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	37%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	14	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Banks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.02	16	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	31.4	15.8	26.2	1.8	33.3	137.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.8%

OKC -17.8%

MIA +16.3%

MIA +5.3%

OKC -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	14.9	15.5	99.0	105.0	106.4
season	14.9	16.0		100.5	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.1		105.7	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.9	14.8	14.0	12.9	13.9
MIA	14.3	14.6	17.3	13.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	18	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-7	8	14.4	13.8	0.61	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Earl Watson	66	65	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.36	10	-16	26	13.5	14.7	-1.19	14.1	16.4	-2.25
Nick Collison	59	59	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.42	10	-16	26	13.3	14.8	-1.55	14.3	15.8	-1.43
Desmond Mason	52	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-8	10	14.5	13.2	1.31	15.6	14.2	1.34
Damien Wilkins	32	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	0	-6	13.2	14.2	-1.08	16.2	14.3	1.90
Chris Wilcox	44	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	10	-26	14.7	13.2	1.54	15.7	14.3	1.38
Jeff Green	90	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-3	0	14.0	13.2	0.77	14.9	15.1	-0.20
Russell Westbrook	68	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	7	-20	13.2	15.3	-2.05	14.4	16.0	-1.56
Kevin Durant	71	71	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.20	-15	9	-24	14.5	12.3	2.22	15.2	14.2	0.99

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	76	75	0.94	-0.44	1.37	0.20	25	-19	44	14.6	15.9	-1.32	13.3	15.5	-2.17
Mario Chalmers	65	67	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.28	20	-14	34	14.8	15.2	-0.45	14.3	13.1	1.19
Udonis Haslem	82	82	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.25	21	-15	36	14.6	16.4	-1.87	13.5	15.7	-2.17
Shawn Marion	81	81	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-7	20	14.4	16.9	-2.45	13.3	16.3	-2.99
Yakhouba Diawara	46	44	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	7	-8	13.6	16.0	-2.45	14.3	13.6	0.72
Marcus Banks	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	6	-6	3.0	15.0	-12.03	4.0	14.0	-9.99
Jamaal Magloire	11	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	8	-10	15.3	14.9	0.41	17.9	13.4	4.46
Joel Anthony	54	55	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	6	-6	16.7	12.8	3.98	14.8	12.8	2.06
Shaun Livingston	25	24	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.02	-8	14	-22	15.3	14.8	0.55	14.2	13.8	0.42
Michael Beasley	26	28	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.07	-13	19	-32	15.8	14.6	1.21	12.8	14.3	-1.53
Daequan Cook	33	33	-0.61	1.11	-1.73	0.12	-25	31	-56	16.0	14.4	1.63	14.4	13.6	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.96,0.9,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.93,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 70, CLE 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	93.9%
LAL 97, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.64,0.77,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.81,0.84,0.77,0.84,1	93.3%
IND 87, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.8,0.93,1,1,1	93.3%