NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	70		Excitement	5.5 [672]		MVP	Vitaly Potapenko (CLE): +7.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	73		Comeback	1.1 [228]		LVP	Michael Jordan (CHI): -23.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Rodman	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	11	62%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Luc Longley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	4	33%	-0.06	1	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Ron Harper	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	8	12%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	6	25%	-0.14	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.08
Scottie Pippen	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22	-0.15	-0.09	-0.01	13	44%	-0.10	5	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Michael Jordan	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.24	-0.14	-0.10	0.00	25	39%	-0.19	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.10	0.00	7	75%	0.19	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.00
Donny Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	20	51%	0.03	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Danny Ferry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	12	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	14	46%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	9	35%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.7	2.4	27.3	15.5	24.5	2.5	35.4	128.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +66.5%

CHI -0.8%

CHI -10.7%

CHI -7.8%

CLE +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CLE	NBA	CHI	CLE	NBA
this game	16.2	19.7	15.6	88.6	90.1	104.4
season	15.5	17.8		110.5	102.1
opponent	16.1	16.1		100.0	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.5	14.5	18.1	16.1	16.2
CLE	20.3	17.5	18.8	22.7	19.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Brown	7	8	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-4	5	13.4	16.5	-3.09	18.6	19.8	-1.21
Jud Buechler	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-4	5	9.7	16.8	-7.11	20.2	19.7	0.49
Dennis Rodman	62	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.37	8	-11	19	16.6	15.1	1.51	20.5	16.4	4.09
Steve Kerr	38	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.48	10	-13	23	15.7	16.8	-1.07	19.3	20.0	-0.70
Ron Harper	43	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	4	-11	18.0	14.2	3.81	21.1	17.9	3.19
Jason Caffey	27	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.21	-1	-2	1	16.1	16.3	-0.14	21.5	18.8	2.65
Luc Longley	30	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.07	-11	8	-19	17.2	15.7	1.55	17.8	20.8	-2.99
Toni Kukoc	39	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	1	-5	16.3	16.1	0.18	18.7	20.7	-1.91
Scottie Pippen	70	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.42	-2	-1	-1	16.0	18.4	-2.49	20.0	17.8	2.19
Michael Jordan	73	75	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.42	-10	7	-17	15.9	20.3	-4.43	18.8	31.0	-12.19

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Phills	77	74	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.44	10	-7	17	19.2	30.2	-11.08	16.0	19.4	-3.37
Danny Ferry	75	74	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	-4	11	19.8	18.8	0.95	15.9	21.2	-5.29
Chris Mills	78	76	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	-2	7	19.9	15.3	4.55	16.2	17.0	-0.79
Terrell Brandon	63	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	2	-1	20.2	18.1	2.13	16.7	14.6	2.03
Mark West	27	27	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.06	11	-8	19	19.1	20.0	-0.96	17.1	15.8	1.38
Vitaly Potapenko	53	51	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.47	-8	11	-19	20.0	19.2	0.77	16.0	16.6	-0.57
Bob Sura	23	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	8	-13	19.1	19.9	-0.82	15.1	16.7	-1.56
Donny Marshall	9	9	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.02	-6	9	-15	20.9	19.6	1.32	19.2	15.9	3.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.89,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 99, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.96,0.9,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.93,0.91,1,1	93.9%
NJN 86, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.98,1,1	93.8%
NYK 97, SAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.95,0.85,1	93.8%