NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	8.2 [212]		MVP	John Salmons (SAC): +37.0%
Sacramento Kings	88		Comeback	5.3 [163]		LVP	Jason Thompson (SAC): -28.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.13	-0.02	17	58%	0.27	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	9	61%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,0.07	-0.06	0.13	0.00	15	53%	0.32	5	-0.25	8	50%	-0.06
Roger Mason Jr.	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.02	-0.00	14	58%	0.17	1	-0.11	3	100%	0.03
Jacque Vaughn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	56%	0.15	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.23	0.14	0.00	13	89%	0.49	3	-0.12	9	89%	0.05
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.01	-0.03	10	55%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.03	5	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	11	57%	0.20	5	-0.24	6	100%	0.09
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.14	-0.02	11	45%	-0.13	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.28	-0.28	-0.08	-0.20	-0.01	13	32%	-0.25	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	25.3	15.4	28.4	2.4	36.3	133.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +68.0%

SAC -7.9%

SAC -3.8%

SAC -6.3%

SAS +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	17.2	14.8	15.5	101.1	96.7	106.4
season	16.4	15.0		106.6	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.7		112.7	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.0	16.5	16.5	17.9	17.2
SAC	13.3	16.2	14.8	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	47	47	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.55	7	-5	12	17.3	17.2	0.09	15.4	14.2	1.18
Roger Mason Jr.	70	72	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.44	10	-8	18	17.4	16.4	1.07	15.0	14.3	0.70
Bruce Bowen	55	56	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.57	1	1	0	16.3	18.6	-2.27	14.8	14.8	-0.02
Jacque Vaughn	45	44	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	-6	14	16.0	18.4	-2.41	15.6	14.0	1.59
Tim Duncan	67	69	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.44	-8	10	-18	17.6	15.9	1.73	14.0	17.5	-3.48
Matt Bonner	49	52	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	-3	8	16.7	17.8	-1.16	15.2	14.3	0.84
Michael Finley	65	66	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.25	-6	8	-14	17.9	15.2	2.69	14.3	16.0	-1.69
Anthony Tolliver	12	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.15	1	1	0	16.7	17.3	-0.54	16.6	14.5	2.04
George Hill	35	37	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.00	-8	10	-18	18.3	16.5	1.81	14.2	15.3	-1.10

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	37	37	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-3	4	15.3	14.5	0.82	18.4	16.4	1.99
Bobby Jackson	16	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	0	-2	15.5	14.7	0.83	15.6	17.6	-2.08
Shelden Williams	8	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	16.6	14.6	1.99	16.0	17.3	-1.35
Spencer Hawes	39	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	5	-12	15.4	14.4	1.04	16.7	17.6	-0.97
Beno Udrih	66	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.39	6	-8	14	14.3	16.2	-1.86	17.7	15.9	1.83
Jason Thompson	63	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.44	6	-8	14	14.6	15.4	-0.79	17.7	16.0	1.69
Bobby Brown	25	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	6	-14	16.2	14.3	1.86	15.9	17.7	-1.83
Brad Miller	73	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-7	12	14.0	17.9	-3.90	17.1	17.5	-0.36
John Salmons	80	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	-1	0	14.7	15.3	-0.52	17.5	15.8	1.69
Quincy Douby	48	45	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.43	-8	6	-14	15.0	14.6	0.44	16.6	17.8	-1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.78,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 90, SAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.78,0.83,0.74,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.9,0.83,0	91.3%
NJN 106, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.66,0.55,0.54,0.78,0.58,0	91.0%
BOS 102, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.7,0.65,0.59,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.32,0.37,0.76,0.42,0	91.0%