NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	93		Excitement	9.0 [124]		MVP	Mike Miller (MIN): +27.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	97		Comeback	4.5 [558]		LVP	Kevin Love (MIN): -25.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.09	0.19	0.01	8	74%	0.29	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.27,0.25	0.05	0.20	0.00	23	50%	0.28	1	-0.03	8	87%	-0.07
Craig Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Randy Foye	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	10	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	12	48%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Ryan Gomes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	8	39%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	7	11%	-0.25	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.05	0.19	-0.00	15	60%	0.32	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.02
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.04,0.22	0.22	0.03	0.21	0.02	15	57%	0.34	3	-0.11	12	75%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.09	0.00	5	69%	0.16	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	10	55%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	10	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	6	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	29.4	15.6	29.2	2.5	32.3	137.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +60.6%

MIN -1.6%

MIN -1.5%

MIN -6.3%

MIN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	POR	NBA	MIN	POR	NBA
this game	18.0	16.0	15.5	110.7	114.1	106.4
season	15.8	16.7		104.3	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.1		105.8	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	18.2	16.6	19.3	18.0	18.0
POR	15.4	18.6	15.0	15.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	27	27	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-11	18	19.8	17.2	2.55	16.2	16.0	0.26
Corey Brewer	29	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-2	0	19.1	17.5	1.61	16.6	15.7	0.85
Mark Madsen	18	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-4	4	20.9	17.3	3.69	14.0	16.6	-2.60
Sebastian Telfair	46	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	0	-4	18.0	18.1	-0.11	16.2	15.9	0.23
Ryan Gomes	33	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.08	-3	-1	-2	18.2	17.9	0.27	15.7	16.3	-0.61
Al Jefferson	64	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-2	0	17.3	20.3	-2.96	16.8	13.9	2.91
Randy Foye	59	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-4	4	18.0	18.2	-0.16	15.7	16.8	-1.01
Mike Miller	64	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-1	-2	17.4	20.2	-2.82	15.8	16.9	-1.18
Kevin Love	47	47	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.31	-6	2	-8	17.5	18.8	-1.32	16.0	16.1	-0.06
Rashad McCants	33	33	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	3	-10	17.6	18.3	-0.73	16.5	15.8	0.72

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	71	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.47	8	-4	12	16.3	14.4	1.96	17.9	19.0	-1.13
Rudy Fernandez	54	53	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.33	9	-5	14	14.9	18.0	-3.12	18.1	18.0	0.13
Steve Blake	57	57	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.29	6	-2	8	17.0	14.2	2.79	16.8	20.6	-3.81
Brandon Roy	64	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	1	2	16.6	14.3	2.34	16.7	22.2	-5.52
Joel Przybilla	36	36	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.34	-3	7	-10	16.3	15.9	0.45	18.7	17.6	1.13
Sergio Rodriguez	21	21	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	3	-2	14.3	16.6	-2.34	22.2	16.7	5.52
Channing Frye	48	46	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	1	2	15.2	17.2	-2.02	17.9	18.2	-0.30
Travis Outlaw	36	34	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	6	-8	15.4	16.6	-1.19	18.9	17.5	1.40
Ike Diogu	7	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	4	-4	14.3	16.2	-1.92	22.2	17.6	4.64
Nicolas Batum	30	31	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	9	-14	18.0	15.0	2.97	18.1	18.0	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.59,0.53,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 86, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.68,0.95,1	92.1%
DEN 108, GSW 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.91,0.85,1	91.8%
ATL 107, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.55,0.57,0.98,1	91.6%