NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	9.0 [127]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +20.8%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	5.6 [220]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -32.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.11	0.01	7	88%	0.23	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12	0.01	0.10	-0.01	8	61%	0.18	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Randolph	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	80%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Corey Brewer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	12	59%	0.14	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.11,0.12,-0.16	0.11	-0.25	0.01	22	62%	0.17	4	-0.33	12	100%	0.10
Andre Iguodala	-0.22	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.22	-0.03	-0.17	0.01	15	45%	-0.12	2	-0.10	1	0%	-0.03
Andre Miller	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	13	24%	-0.20	3	-0.12	3	67%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.07	0.00	17	67%	0.27	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.05
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.12	0.00	15	56%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.00	3	83%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	86%	0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Richard Jefferson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.03	14	72%	0.20	7	-0.24	4	75%	-0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	17	51%	0.03	4	-0.17	3	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	10	30%	-0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.2	2.6	29.8	17.0	29.6	3.7	44.8	161.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +51.5%

DEN -7.7%

GSW +13.8%

DEN -6.7%

DEN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.9	14.8	15.4	106.9	110.0	104.1
season	14.4	14.6		108.4	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.4		103.7	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	13.5	17.4	11.5	13.9
GSW	12.8	15.8	14.7	15.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	54	53	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.23	11	-13	24	12.5	15.5	-2.93	14.5	15.0	-0.49
JaVale McGee	27	27	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-1	0	15.5	13.3	2.16	15.0	14.7	0.28
Kosta Koufos	23	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-2	2	14.7	13.7	1.09	14.0	15.0	-0.97
Anthony Randolph	8	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	0	-2	12.1	14.1	-1.93	17.7	14.5	3.25
Evan Fournier	28	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	6	-14	15.6	13.3	2.31	14.2	15.0	-0.77
Andre Iguodala	89	88	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-7	12	13.8	14.8	-1.06	15.0	13.0	2.00
Kenneth Faried	63	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-4	6	14.0	13.7	0.31	15.6	13.4	2.16
Ty Lawson	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	0	-2	14.0	13.6	0.40	14.5	15.6	-1.09
Wilson Chandler	78	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	4	-10	13.6	15.0	-1.42	14.4	16.0	-1.65
Andre Miller	56	57	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.46	-9	7	-16	13.9	13.9	0.06	14.6	15.0	-0.46

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	76	78	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.33	10	-8	18	14.9	14.2	0.73	14.4	12.2	2.18
Klay Thompson	73	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.37	7	-5	12	15.0	14.0	0.99	14.1	13.2	0.90
Harrison Barnes	87	89	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	0	2	15.2	12.1	3.08	14.3	11.1	3.20
Jarrett Jack	88	88	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	3	-4	15.1	12.5	2.57	13.5	16.5	-2.94
Andrew Bogut	59	58	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	-3	8	15.5	13.7	1.87	15.0	12.4	2.62
Draymond Green	33	34	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	-1	4	13.2	15.5	-2.31	12.9	14.4	-1.49
Carl Landry	56	57	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	6	-10	15.1	14.3	0.83	13.2	14.7	-1.50
Kent Bazemore	5	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.14	-5	7	-12	8.4	15.1	-6.69	4.0	14.3	-10.31
Festus Ezeli	17	17	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	7	-12	11.4	15.5	-4.10	13.8	13.9	-0.16
Richard Jefferson	6	6	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	7	-12	11.5	15.0	-3.47	11.2	14.1	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.91,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 95, DET 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.95,0.9,0.96,1	92.8%
GSW 74, PHX 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.8,0.91,1	92.0%
ORL 93, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.34,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.73,0.75,0.55,0.86,0.95,1	91.8%