NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	7.9 [254]		MVP	James Posey (BOS): +23.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	2.2 [614]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -40.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24	0.04	0.19	-0.00	8	70%	0.35	3	-0.11	7	71%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.03	8	87%	0.18	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Leon Powe	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	61%	0.10	2	-0.04	11	55%	-0.07
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	11	64%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.10	-0.01	10	65%	0.08	3	-0.15	6	83%	-0.03
Eddie House	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26,-0.32,-0.32,-0.42,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.04	-0.03	8	24%	-0.02	4	-0.15	1	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19	-0.19	-0.05	-0.04	5	25%	-0.02	7	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.28,0.22	0.22	0.05	0.18	0.00	9	55%	0.22	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.09	0.04	19	57%	0.15	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	6	93%	0.21	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	15	38%	-0.05	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	11	50%	0.01	5	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4	-0.40	-0.21	-0.25	-0.06	14	43%	0.02	10	-0.42	7	71%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	2.4	32.1	15.5	24.6	2.7	45.1	1.8	13.9	165.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +24.7%

BOS +3.4%

BOS +9.2%

BOS +5.6%

BOS +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	14.3	15.4	99.1	95.4	105.7
season	15.6	15.8		108.0	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.9		110.7	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	13.5	15.2	14.2	16.7	16.0	15.0
MIL	15.3	12.5	15.2	14.7	14.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	41	42	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.23	20	-17	37	14.1	15.5	-1.43	15.1	13.9	1.18
Paul Pierce	42	42	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.17	17	-14	31	14.3	15.4	-1.11	15.3	13.8	1.52
Rajon Rondo	42	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	-9	21	14.6	15.2	-0.52	15.3	13.7	1.55
Ray Allen	43	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	-8	19	15.1	14.9	0.22	15.4	13.6	1.79
Eddie House	66	66	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.45	-7	10	-17	15.2	14.6	0.52	13.5	15.6	-2.11
Kendrick Perkins	40	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	-5	13	15.2	14.8	0.42	16.0	13.3	2.69
Glen Davis	62	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.44	-7	10	-17	14.9	15.0	-0.06	13.7	15.1	-1.39
James Posey	72	72	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.56	-12	15	-27	15.2	14.4	0.82	13.7	15.6	-1.89
Tony Allen	65	64	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.45	-8	11	-19	14.9	15.1	-0.22	13.6	15.4	-1.79
Leon Powe	54	55	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.59	-17	20	-37	15.6	14.3	1.30	14.2	14.5	-0.34
Brian Scalabrine	13	13	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.07	-2	5	-7	15.1	14.9	0.13	11.9	14.7	-2.75

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	21	22	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.16	9	-12	21	13.1	14.6	-1.55	18.0	14.2	3.81
Bobby Simmons	54	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-5	7	13.2	15.4	-2.20	15.3	14.6	0.67
Michael Ruffin	49	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.67	15	-18	33	14.7	14.1	0.55	16.8	13.6	3.25
Ramon Sessions	77	78	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	4	-11	14.5	14.1	0.41	14.6	15.9	-1.30
Royal Ivey	52	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-4	5	14.0	14.6	-0.59	15.5	14.5	1.00
Michael Redd	92	91	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.43	3	-6	9	14.3	14.8	-0.49	14.7	16.4	-1.72
Andrew Bogut	97	95	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-2	1	14.4	13.7	0.77	14.4	19.2	-4.85
Charlie Villanueva	32	33	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.36	-27	24	-51	16.4	13.5	2.91	12.2	16.2	-4.00
Desmond Mason	71	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	7	-17	14.5	14.1	0.45	15.0	14.9	0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.19,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.22,0.45,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.32,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 127, NYK 121	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.33,0.34,0.14,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.46,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.15,0	89.7%
TOR 123, OKC 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.04,0	89.3%
POR 94, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.03,0.17,0.31,0.12,0.09,0,0	88.9%