NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	118		Excitement	7.7 [278]		MVP	Wally Szczerbiak (CLE): +20.8%
Charlotte Bobcats	114		Comeback	3.1 [234]		LVP	Raymond Felton (CHA): -15.4%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.05	0.14	-0.02	8	61%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	9	71%	0.16	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.06
LeBron James	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.07	0.04	19	66%	0.26	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.05
Joe Smith	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	8	72%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Devin Brown	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.00	14	50%	0.11	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.05
Delonte West	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	62%	0.06	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Dwayne Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.02	16	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.03	-0.02	14	68%	0.26	3	-0.12	9	78%	0.03
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.04	0.05	22	66%	0.20	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.07
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	69%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.07	0.02	15	54%	0.01	3	-0.09	9	78%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	13	29%	-0.12	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.8	31.5	15.6	27.4	2.0	41.2	146.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +8.0%

CLE +8.2%

CLE +22.3%

CLE +11.2%

CLE +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	CHA	NBA	CLE	CHA	NBA
this game	16.5	13.1	15.4	121.6	116.3	105.7
season	16.4	15.8		104.0	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		107.8	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	17.0	16.0	16.3	16.6	16.5
CHA	13.0	12.8	13.0	13.5	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	86	86	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.42	8	-4	12	16.0	20.1	-4.09	12.7	16.1	-3.41
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	62	62	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.30	9	-5	14	17.3	15.1	2.20	13.4	12.5	0.89
Delonte West	71	72	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	-3	10	16.6	16.1	0.53	12.8	13.8	-0.97
Anderson Varejao	66	65	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	-4	12	17.3	14.7	2.53	12.9	13.5	-0.59
Wally Szczerbiak	46	48	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.26	-1	5	-6	15.1	17.7	-2.62	12.7	13.4	-0.71
LeBron James	59	63	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	1	2	17.3	15.2	2.06	13.8	11.9	1.88
Dwayne Jones	2	3	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	4	-4	18.5	16.4	2.08	2.0	13.4	-11.44
Daniel Gibson	41	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.19	-7	11	-18	15.7	17.0	-1.31	13.4	12.9	0.48
Joe Smith	52	51	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.12	-7	11	-18	15.9	17.1	-1.25	14.0	12.1	1.81

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Carroll	36	34	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.11	9	-13	22	12.9	13.2	-0.32	14.5	17.5	-3.02
Nazr Mohammed	47	47	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.13	8	-12	20	14.2	12.0	2.19	16.9	16.1	0.83
Earl Boykins	14	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.07	-5	1	-6	13.6	13.0	0.56	14.9	16.7	-1.88
Ryan Hollins	5	5	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	0	-4	16.0	12.9	3.06	18.4	16.4	2.04
Raymond Felton	84	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-5	6	13.0	13.6	-0.56	16.7	14.9	1.88
Jared Dudley	55	55	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	4	-12	12.7	13.6	-0.91	16.3	16.6	-0.27
Emeka Okafor	78	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	4	-12	12.8	14.2	-1.39	16.5	16.2	0.30
Jason Richardson	84	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	0	-4	12.7	15.4	-2.64	16.8	14.5	2.36
Gerald Wallace	87	86	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.38	-9	5	-14	13.3	11.7	1.54	16.6	15.6	0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.22,0.14,0.34,0.03,0.04,0	93.0%
HOU 90, GSW 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.24,0.37,0.22,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.35,0.61,0.38,0.36,0.24,0.04,0	92.6%
SAS 95, CHA 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.12,0.19,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	92.4%