NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	96		Excitement	8.3 [180]		MVP	Raymond Felton (CHA): +19.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	93		Comeback	2.1 [363]		LVP	Damien Wilkins (SEA): -16.8%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raymond Felton	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.2	0.06	0.14	0.01	15	64%	0.29	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Emeka Okafor	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	-0.01	0.01	12	66%	0.10	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.05,0.06	0.10	-0.07	-0.03	20	56%	0.10	1	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Earl Boykins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	30%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	12	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jared Dudley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	5	42%	-0.04	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	7	59%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	10	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.08,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.08	0.01	17	45%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.02	4	78%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Johan Petro	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	9	40%	-0.06	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,0.03,-0.17	-0.17	-0.00	-0.16	0.01	14	57%	0.09	3	-0.25	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.16	-0.00	10	45%	-0.03	1	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	27.2	15.6	25.0	2.5	38.9	137.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA -0.1%

CHA +19.4%

CHA +11.9%

CHA +27.0%

SEA -8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	SEA	NBA	CHA	SEA	NBA
this game	15.1	16.4	15.4	104.3	102.2	105.7
season	15.8	14.5		103.1	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.1		107.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.3	17.5	14.5	14.1	15.1
SEA	15.7	15.3	17.6	17.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	72	71	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.39	13	-10	23	14.9	15.6	-0.68	16.7	15.5	1.11
Jason Richardson	82	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	-5	13	14.8	17.3	-2.51	16.8	13.3	3.42
Gerald Wallace	88	87	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.35	7	-4	11	15.1	15.0	0.07	16.4	16.2	0.18
Emeka Okafor	62	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	-6	15	15.4	14.4	1.04	17.5	14.2	3.24
Raymond Felton	67	68	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	-2	7	14.8	15.8	-1.06	16.6	15.8	0.85
Matt Carroll	28	28	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.25	-4	7	-11	14.3	15.4	-1.12	15.2	17.0	-1.79
Earl Boykins	25	23	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	5	-7	15.8	14.8	1.06	15.8	16.6	-0.85
Ryan Hollins	11	10	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	8	-13	15.5	15.0	0.55	12.9	16.9	-3.95
Nazr Mohammed	25	24	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.06	-16	19	-35	16.2	14.6	1.56	14.7	17.0	-2.26

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	39	38	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.21	13	-16	29	15.3	17.2	-1.94	15.9	14.5	1.37
Francisco Elson	18	17	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	14.9	16.8	-1.84	16.1	14.8	1.22
Nick Collison	66	68	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.20	4	-7	11	17.0	15.0	1.95	15.7	13.3	2.40
Donyell Marshall	51	51	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.43	10	-13	23	15.9	17.1	-1.26	15.6	14.4	1.26
Damien Wilkins	58	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.52	11	-14	25	16.3	16.5	-0.20	15.7	14.0	1.69
Johan Petro	37	38	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	11	-25	17.2	15.9	1.25	14.4	15.6	-1.19
Jeff Green	55	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	8	-19	17.0	15.6	1.43	14.8	15.4	-0.58
Kevin Durant	77	78	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.33	-14	11	-25	16.3	17.2	-0.94	14.4	19.0	-4.64
Earl Watson	54	56	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.28	-18	15	-33	16.8	15.9	0.89	14.0	16.7	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.54,0.23,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 94, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.71,0.72,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.42,0	89.2%
NYK 96, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.72,0.45,0.42,0	89.0%
OKC 95, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.26,0	88.8%