NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	6.6 [446]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +29.7%
Detroit Pistons	116		Comeback	1.2 [1091]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): -12.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.28	0.22	0.07	0.01	12	96%	0.33	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Joakim Noah	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.02	0.01	9	71%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Andres Nocioni	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.07	0.06	0.03	6	67%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Drew Gooden	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	9	42%	0.03	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	55%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	13	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Luol Deng	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	17	47%	0.07	2	-0.09	11	82%	0.01
Shannon Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.3	0.30	0.27	0.07	0.04	12	89%	0.33	2	-0.04	14	93%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.07	-0.01	15	62%	0.21	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.12	-0.00	4	80%	0.19	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	19	53%	0.14	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Walter Herrmann	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	10	18%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.8	32.2	18.6	34.2	3.6	39.2	158.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +35.3%

CHI -5.7%

DET +22.0%

CHI -4.9%

DET +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	14.3	18.0	15.4	122.5	130.3	105.7
season	15.0	16.8		102.2	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.5	14.9	14.8	13.1	14.3
DET	18.3	18.7	17.9	17.4	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	30	31	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.16	9	-16	25	15.0	14.0	0.98	21.0	16.5	4.48
Tyrus Thomas	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-3	-1	15.9	14.2	1.67	16.7	18.2	-1.44
Aaron Gray	5	5	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-1	-5	12.0	14.5	-2.45	17.2	18.1	-0.90
Shannon Brown	16	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	1	-9	15.1	14.1	0.99	18.2	18.0	0.20
Joakim Noah	59	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-8	9	15.6	11.8	3.84	19.2	15.9	3.34
Drew Gooden	61	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-2	-3	14.3	14.3	-0.01	17.5	19.2	-1.72
Luol Deng	82	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-7	7	14.2	15.6	-1.36	18.1	17.2	0.94
Andres Nocioni	55	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.22	-7	0	-7	13.3	16.0	-2.73	17.4	19.2	-1.83
Ben Gordon	55	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	-1	-5	14.0	14.9	-0.92	17.2	19.4	-2.16
Larry Hughes	75	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	2	-11	14.0	15.9	-1.92	17.6	20.6	-3.00

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	72	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.19	14	-7	21	18.2	17.2	1.07	14.3	14.4	-0.07
Tayshaun Prince	74	73	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.24	10	-3	13	17.6	20.0	-2.35	13.9	16.1	-2.13
Jason Maxiell	40	42	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-3	13	18.3	17.8	0.46	15.1	13.6	1.52
Antonio McDyess	63	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.01	16	-9	25	18.0	18.1	-0.10	14.0	15.0	-0.98
Chauncey Billups	65	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	-1	9	18.2	17.6	0.58	14.0	15.3	-1.28
Theo Ratliff	46	45	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	4	-1	19.4	16.6	2.79	14.6	14.1	0.49
Rodney Stuckey	24	23	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	8	-9	17.6	18.2	-0.58	15.3	14.0	1.28
Arron Afflalo	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	7	-7	4.0	18.5	-14.53	6.7	14.6	-7.91
Jarvis Hayes	15	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	10	-13	20.0	17.6	2.35	16.1	13.9	2.13
Juan Dixon	17	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.10	-7	14	-21	17.2	18.2	-1.07	14.4	14.3	0.07
Walter Herrmann	2	2	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	11	-15	11.5	18.2	-6.70	12.5	14.4	-1.86
Amir Johnson	24	24	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.14	-11	18	-29	17.4	18.3	-0.86	14.3	14.3	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.95,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 92, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	93.8%
TOR 93, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.9,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.98,1	93.8%
SAS 89, UTA 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.8,0.71,0.76,0.69,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.58,0.57,0.82,0.8,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.3%