NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	109		Excitement	8.1 [205]		MVP	Jason Richardson (CHA): +18.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	118		Comeback	3.9 [427]		LVP	Emeka Okafor (CHA): -8.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.03	0.01	17	70%	0.25	3	-0.07	12	67%	-0.03
Al Harrington	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	18	55%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Brandan Wright	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Matt Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick O'Bryant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.00	22	60%	0.19	6	-0.25	6	83%	0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.05	-0.01	32	59%	0.36	4	-0.18	7	100%	0.04
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	8	59%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.13	-0.00	19	50%	0.17	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.02
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jermareo Davidson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	10	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	0.00	13	36%	-0.06	1	-0.03	18	56%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.6	31.4	15.5	26.3	2.5	39.5	142.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +21.6%

GSW -4.8%

CHA +22.8%

CHA +10.8%

GSW -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	CHA	NBA	GSW	CHA	NBA
this game	12.3	16.0	15.4	106.9	115.7	105.7
season	13.5	15.8		109.8	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.1		107.8	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.2	12.7	13.3	13.3	12.3
CHA	15.1	14.9	16.7	17.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	26	25	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-10	11	12.0	12.4	-0.33	17.1	15.6	1.50
Marco Belinelli	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	11.0	12.3	-1.30	25.0	15.9	9.14
CJ Watson	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	11.0	12.3	-1.30	25.0	15.9	9.14
Brandan Wright	50	51	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	11.3	13.2	-1.97	16.3	15.6	0.73
Kelenna Azubuike	25	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-8	7	13.4	11.9	1.48	15.9	16.0	-0.04
Patrick O'Bryant	13	14	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-4	-1	11.8	12.4	-0.59	14.5	16.2	-1.68
Austin Croshere	22	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	1	-11	12.4	12.2	0.16	15.0	16.2	-1.23
Al Harrington	53	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-10	11	11.9	12.7	-0.75	15.2	16.7	-1.47
Baron Davis	84	84	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-7	5	12.1	13.1	-1.00	15.5	18.3	-2.83
Stephen Jackson	93	93	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	-1	-7	12.5	9.8	2.75	16.0	15.8	0.19
Monta Ellis	96	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.30	-7	-2	-5	12.3	12.0	0.30	16.2	12.7	3.48
Mickael Pietrus	46	49	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.07	-18	9	-27	13.3	11.5	1.78	16.6	15.3	1.31

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	83	83	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.11	20	-11	31	16.3	14.6	1.69	12.9	9.6	3.32
Jason Richardson	102	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	16.0	0.0	15.95	12.3	0.0	12.28
Earl Boykins	38	39	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	-8	25	16.7	15.5	1.17	13.0	11.8	1.20
Raymond Felton	89	90	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.39	-1	10	-11	16.0	15.4	0.65	12.1	13.7	-1.57
Matt Carroll	83	82	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	6	-3	15.6	17.5	-1.94	12.1	13.1	-1.08
Emeka Okafor	68	67	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.31	-1	10	-11	16.3	15.2	1.07	11.8	13.3	-1.52
Nazr Mohammed	31	31	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	8	-7	14.6	16.5	-1.92	13.3	11.9	1.40
Jermareo Davidson	16	16	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.00	-3	12	-15	15.1	16.1	-1.05	9.7	12.8	-3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.53,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 78, POR 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.92,0.9,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.62,0.79,0.89,1,1	93.3%
OKC 86, SAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.62,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.53,0.69,0.92,0.95,0.99,1	91.7%
IND 101, TOR 110	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.71,0.72,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.92,1	91.1%