NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	89		Excitement	5.4 [711]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +22.4%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.2 [907]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (NOH): -14.5%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	23	54%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	8	56%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	14	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.06	-0.01	9	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.03	0.04	5	62%	-0.00	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Bonzi Wells	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.04	-0.03	7	14%	-0.10	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.11	0.03	16	68%	0.25	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.09	0.05	18	71%	0.27	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	8	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	13	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.7	27.1	15.7	27.5	2.7	28.7	125.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.5%

SAS +19.2%

SAS +14.3%

NOH -17.0%

SAS +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAS	NBA	NOH	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	17.2	15.4	102.3	111.4	105.7
season	15.9	16.5		109.6	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.7		100.5	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.4	15.6	14.4	15.4	15.7
SAS	16.1	18.0	16.9	18.0	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	19	21	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-11	13	14.0	16.1	-2.13	19.1	16.6	2.50
Jannero Pargo	25	25	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.04	-1	-8	7	16.2	15.5	0.69	18.9	16.6	2.29
Ryan Bowen	9	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-6	3	19.3	15.2	4.09	19.9	17.0	2.90
Mike James	27	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-9	9	17.1	15.0	2.04	18.5	16.7	1.85
Morris Peterson	36	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-8	7	16.8	14.8	1.99	17.1	17.3	-0.22
Bonzi Wells	35	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-3	-3	13.6	17.0	-3.41	18.6	16.2	2.41
David West	77	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	15.3	18.3	-2.98	17.0	19.4	-2.44
Peja Stojakovic	71	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	15.5	16.2	-0.71	16.3	21.0	-4.66
Tyson Chandler	68	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	2	-13	16.1	14.0	2.13	16.6	19.1	-2.50
Chris Paul	68	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.26	-11	2	-13	15.4	16.6	-1.23	16.4	20.3	-3.92

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	41	40	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-6	21	18.3	16.3	1.93	13.7	17.4	-3.69
Manu Ginobili	70	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	1	7	16.3	20.9	-4.59	15.5	16.3	-0.79
Bruce Bowen	55	56	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	1	7	16.2	19.0	-2.87	16.6	14.0	2.54
Tim Duncan	69	69	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	2	5	17.1	17.9	-0.84	15.9	14.7	1.26
Damon Stoudamire	30	31	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.03	12	-3	15	17.8	17.0	0.80	13.8	16.7	-2.89
Tony Parker	56	54	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.28	-1	10	-11	16.1	19.2	-3.06	16.9	13.7	3.12
Fabricio Oberto	59	58	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.27	-5	14	-19	16.9	17.9	-1.03	16.6	13.8	2.86
Michael Finley	19	17	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	8	-7	20.6	16.3	4.33	15.8	15.6	0.19
Ime Udoka	32	30	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	8	-7	19.1	16.2	2.96	14.2	16.4	-2.19
Matt Bonner	7	7	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	8	-7	15.9	17.4	-1.50	16.6	15.6	0.98
Jacque Vaughn	2	2	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	11	-13	40.5	16.7	23.80	12.5	15.7	-3.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.88,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.53,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.89,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 82, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.76,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	94.5%
ATL 97, PHX 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.8,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.54,0.69,0.9,0.97,0.99,1	93.1%
CHI 86, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.96,0.92,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.83,0.91,0.97,1	92.7%