NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Excitement	7.9 [252]		MVP	Troy Murphy (IND): +16.5%
Indiana Pacers	97		Comeback	3.0 [434]		LVP	Larry Hughes (CLE): -17.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gibson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	8	94%	0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	22	55%	0.18	4	-0.11	12	67%	-0.05
Devin Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.02	11	63%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.06	0.09	0.00	13	45%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.03
Donyell Marshall	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	4	37%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17	-0.00	-0.14	0.03	16	51%	-0.05	3	-0.12	5	60%	-0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.03	0.01	11	80%	0.20	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	9	67%	0.15	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	3	40%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,0.04,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.10	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.03
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Diener	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	7	21%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	0.11	-0.14	0.06	22	60%	-0.01	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	13	33%	-0.11	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.6	28.2	15.5	28.4	2.7	33.2	136.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +21.9%

IND -10.7%

CLE +18.0%

CLE +4.2%

CLE +16.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	IND	NBA	CLE	IND	NBA
this game	16.6	15.0	15.4	116.5	106.6	105.7
season	16.4	13.8		104.0	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.2		105.6	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.4	17.5	19.2	15.9	16.6
IND	14.4	14.6	15.1	16.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	46	45	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-6	21	17.6	15.7	1.90	14.8	15.2	-0.40
Damon Jones	39	39	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.17	19	-10	29	16.7	16.6	0.16	15.9	14.4	1.53
LeBron James	81	82	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.17	14	-5	19	16.7	15.9	0.82	15.2	13.2	2.00
Larry Hughes	80	78	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.36	3	6	-3	16.6	16.9	-0.32	15.0	15.3	-0.33
Dwayne Jones	16	18	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.05	11	-2	13	17.1	16.5	0.60	14.2	15.2	-1.00
Daniel Gibson	37	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	4	1	17.4	16.1	1.27	14.2	15.5	-1.32
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	62	60	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.28	-5	14	-19	16.9	16.0	0.97	15.4	14.3	1.16
Donyell Marshall	3	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	10	-11	16.0	16.6	-0.65	13.7	15.1	-1.33
Ira Newble	38	38	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.03	-3	12	-15	15.8	17.2	-1.48	14.7	15.3	-0.58
Drew Gooden	53	55	-0.42	0.92	-1.35	-0.04	-13	22	-35	15.3	18.5	-3.22	15.0	15.0	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Diener	54	54	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.20	14	-23	37	14.7	15.4	-0.69	17.7	15.0	2.70
Troy Murphy	67	69	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.33	15	-24	39	15.2	14.6	0.54	16.9	15.7	1.25
Danny Granger	81	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-13	17	15.2	13.9	1.26	17.0	14.2	2.78
Jeff Foster	79	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-11	13	15.3	13.2	2.04	17.2	13.3	3.95
Ike Diogu	9	10	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	1	-11	13.3	15.2	-1.87	13.7	17.0	-3.29
Mike Dunleavy	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-3	-3	15.1	14.7	0.33	16.4	17.7	-1.25
Kareem Rush	32	33	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.10	-20	11	-31	14.8	15.1	-0.32	15.9	17.1	-1.17
Shawne Williams	20	19	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.13	-21	12	-33	14.3	15.2	-0.86	15.3	17.0	-1.66
Marquis Daniels	38	37	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.06	-23	14	-37	15.1	14.9	0.19	15.0	17.7	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.21,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 107, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.47,0.35,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.53,0.45,0.16,0.03,0,0	92.4%
MIA 103, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.5,0.43,0.29,0.48,0.53,0.69,0.53,0.53,0.25,0.05,0.02,0.02,0	92.1%
NOK 98, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.47,0.4,0.26,0.16,0.23,0.26,0	91.7%