NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	7.0 [445]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +18.8%
New Jersey Nets	92		Comeback	2.8 [238]		LVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): -15.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.09	0.00	4	100%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.07	-0.01	8	44%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	4	69%	0.06	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Antoine Walker	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.04	0.01	11	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.04	0.08	16	64%	0.22	6	-0.21	15	93%	0.06
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	58%	0.04	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.01
Jason Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Shandon Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.02	-0.07	-0.02	15	54%	0.03	4	-0.11	5	60%	-0.06

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	-0.01	8	56%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.09	-0.12	0.07	34	56%	0.09	3	-0.18	9	67%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	14	27%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.08	0.02	13	59%	0.02	5	-0.15	3	67%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	12	38%	-0.05	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	3.4	34.3	19.8	28.0	3.5	44.5	163.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.7%

MIA +34.2%

NJN -17.7%

MIA +11.0%

NJN -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.3	15.6	109.6	97.9	104.4
season	15.5	15.7		106.1	102.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		100.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.5	13.9	15.8	13.5	15.3
NJN	13.6	15.5	17.7	14.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	85	84	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.23	21	-10	31	15.1	17.4	-2.36	14.8	19.7	-4.89
Gary Payton	53	54	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.13	22	-11	33	15.3	15.3	-0.02	15.9	14.6	1.27
James Posey	71	70	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.12	22	-11	33	14.8	17.0	-2.24	15.4	15.1	0.33
Shaquille O'Neal	67	68	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.25	3	8	-5	16.6	12.2	4.33	15.9	13.9	1.94
Alonzo Mourning	22	22	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	6	-1	13.8	15.8	-1.95	15.2	15.4	-0.13
Udonis Haslem	46	48	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.29	-5	16	-21	14.6	16.0	-1.41	13.9	16.9	-3.02
Antoine Walker	65	65	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	11	-11	16.2	13.4	2.79	16.1	13.7	2.42
Shandon Anderson	9	8	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.10	-4	15	-19	10.0	15.9	-5.87	12.5	15.6	-3.09
Jason Williams	52	51	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.03	-9	20	-29	15.9	14.5	1.42	15.7	14.9	0.82

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamond Murray	37	36	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.18	-4	-7	3	14.9	15.6	-0.63	13.3	16.5	-3.20
Jason Kidd	85	85	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-17	23	14.9	19.0	-4.06	15.8	10.2	5.62
Jacque Vaughn	30	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.16	-11	0	-11	16.7	14.7	2.01	14.3	15.8	-1.53
Jason Collins	68	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-7	3	16.2	13.2	3.01	16.8	11.9	4.92
John Thomas	14	15	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-4	-3	17.3	15.0	2.30	14.4	15.5	-1.08
Richard Jefferson	89	89	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	-3	-5	15.0	21.0	-5.99	15.2	18.0	-2.84
Nenad Krstic	65	67	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-7	3	14.8	16.6	-1.77	15.7	14.4	1.26
Vince Carter	82	82	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.17	-23	12	-35	15.2	16.5	-1.34	14.9	18.4	-3.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.5,0.43,0.29,0.48,0.53,0.69,0.53,0.53,0.25,0.05,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 87, IND 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.38,0.1,0.04,0,0	92.7%
CLE 106, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.21,0.06,0.05,0	92.1%
NOH 81, IND 71	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.1,0.16,0.08,0	91.0%