NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	3.8 [1025]		MVP	Keith Bogans (ORL): +17.7%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	1.8 [260]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -16.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.02	0.03	8	95%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0.16	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.04	0.01	10	76%	0.17	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.02	-0.07	6	69%	0.12	2	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.19	-0.01	0.16	10	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	1	33%	0.01	2	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Pat Garrity	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	13	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Brian Cook	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	31%	-0.07	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	9	33%	-0.03	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	64%	0.03	3	-0.02	9	89%	0.01
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.03	6	75%	0.07	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	7	44%	-0.03	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	10	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	13	38%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	13	32%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	29.9	16.5	32.4	2.0	25.3	131.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +49.1%

ORL +0.3%

DET -1.1%

DET -0.8%

ORL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	15.7	15.4	114.4	95.5	105.7
season	15.1	16.8		109.9	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.6		101.3	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.2	15.4	14.2	19.1	16.4
DET	15.5	15.9	17.1	14.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	77	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.19	23	-5	28	16.7	14.9	1.77	15.8	15.3	0.54
Keith Bogans	60	60	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.31	25	-7	32	16.1	17.0	-0.90	15.7	15.9	-0.18
Rashard Lewis	61	61	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.09	17	1	16	16.5	16.2	0.28	15.5	16.4	-0.90
Dwight Howard	60	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	1	16	15.1	19.1	-4.00	15.8	15.6	0.28
Keyon Dooling	53	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.03	14	4	10	16.6	16.2	0.37	15.4	16.2	-0.86
Jameer Nelson	37	38	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	14	-10	16.2	16.6	-0.37	16.2	15.4	0.86
Brian Cook	30	31	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.16	9	9	0	15.9	16.7	-0.75	17.5	14.8	2.62
Adonal Foyle	30	29	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	17	-16	19.1	15.1	4.00	15.6	15.8	-0.28
Maurice Evans	31	31	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.28	-7	25	-32	17.0	16.1	0.91	15.9	15.6	0.30
Pat Garrity	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	24	-30	13.7	16.6	-2.81	6.7	16.1	-9.39
JJ Redick	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	25	-32	16.4	16.4	-0.01	12.8	16.0	-3.12

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter Herrmann	14	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-25	32	14.8	15.9	-1.13	18.1	16.1	1.96
Amir Johnson	24	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-22	26	15.3	15.9	-0.56	18.2	15.8	2.39
Jason Maxiell	30	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.25	-14	-4	-10	16.3	15.4	0.89	17.4	16.0	1.45
Richard Hamilton	45	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-11	4	15.8	15.7	0.12	17.1	15.8	1.29
Arron Afflalo	37	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-13	8	15.9	15.6	0.26	16.2	16.6	-0.46
Jarvis Hayes	36	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-11	4	14.7	16.4	-1.71	17.5	15.7	1.79
Tayshaun Prince	53	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-7	-4	16.4	14.7	1.71	15.7	17.5	-1.79
Antonio McDyess	59	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	-5	-8	15.6	16.1	-0.54	15.9	17.4	-1.45
Rodney Stuckey	50	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	-6	-6	15.0	16.6	-1.60	16.6	16.3	0.29
Chauncey Billups	46	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	-6	-6	16.3	15.1	1.21	15.9	17.0	-1.13
Rasheed Wallace	51	52	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.08	-20	2	-22	16.1	15.3	0.74	15.2	18.2	-3.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 113, NOH 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
ORL 101, SEA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
SAC 116, MEM 99	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%