NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	119		Excitement	9.2 [97]		MVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): +33.2%
Chicago Bulls	111		Comeback	6.3 [222]		LVP	Thabo Sefolosha (CHI): -16.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.31	0.03	0.31	0.02	17	56%	0.38	3	-0.07	9	100%	0.08
Baron Davis	0.30	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.3	0.24	0.09	0.03	23	74%	0.39	4	-0.09	8	100%	0.04
Matt Barnes	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13	-0.02	0.14	-0.01	9	48%	0.17	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.03
Monta Ellis	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	0.01	19	55%	0.21	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.46,0.36,0.33	0.33	0.23	0.10	-0.00	17	74%	0.33	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.09	0.02	18	72%	0.32	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.07
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	9	54%	0.12	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	5	44%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	17%	-0.08
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.10
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	15	46%	0.02	5	-0.14	7	43%	-0.08
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	11	39%	-0.03	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.7	34.2	19.6	29.2	3.5	41.3	158.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +30.6%

GSW +11.5%

CHI -6.6%

GSW +16.9%

CHI -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	CHI	NBA	GSW	CHI	NBA
this game	13.6	15.2	15.4	119.0	111.0	105.7
season	13.5	15.0		109.8	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.1		105.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.7	17.0	12.8	12.4	13.6
CHI	16.6	14.3	15.5	14.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	95	94	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-5	18	13.0	26.0	-13.02	15.1	15.5	-0.35
Baron Davis	95	95	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.26	10	-2	12	13.6	14.2	-0.60	15.1	16.0	-0.87
Stephen Jackson	92	92	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	5	-2	13.8	11.6	2.18	15.3	13.7	1.54
Kelenna Azubuike	16	16	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	6	-4	14.4	13.5	0.96	11.4	15.9	-4.44
Matt Barnes	67	66	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	8	-8	14.6	11.8	2.79	14.9	15.7	-0.77
Andris Biedrins	55	57	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	-2	12	12.5	15.0	-2.41	15.9	14.2	1.77
Mickael Pietrus	14	15	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	4	0	12.6	13.8	-1.15	15.6	15.1	0.51
Al Harrington	66	65	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	10	-12	14.3	12.2	2.11	15.5	14.5	0.96

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	57	58	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.15	9	-17	26	16.3	13.7	2.62	14.0	13.1	0.92
Ben Wallace	45	44	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-10	12	15.9	14.6	1.35	13.4	13.8	-0.48
Joakim Noah	32	34	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-13	18	14.9	15.3	-0.39	14.4	13.2	1.18
Tyrus Thomas	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.03	1	-9	10	11.0	15.3	-4.26	38.5	13.1	25.38
Ben Gordon	72	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	0	-8	14.1	18.0	-3.93	13.8	13.2	0.60
Andres Nocioni	63	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-5	2	14.5	16.4	-1.88	14.1	12.9	1.14
Joe Smith	65	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	5	-18	15.4	14.7	0.75	13.2	14.4	-1.23
Luol Deng	90	91	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.19	-16	8	-24	15.5	11.8	3.74	13.3	16.6	-3.21
Chris Duhon	74	74	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.20	-17	9	-26	15.1	15.5	-0.45	12.7	16.4	-3.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.59,0.54,0.28,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 92, BKN 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.57,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.04,0	91.2%
NYK 86, SAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.39,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.27,0	90.9%
DAL 108, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.52,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.34,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.37,0	90.7%