NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	9.7 [66]		MVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): +29.9%
Charlotte Bobcats	119		Comeback	3.7 [367]		LVP	Anthony Carter (DEN): -40.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	9	60%	0.14	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Allen Iverson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.01	20	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	10	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.02	14	59%	0.07	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.05
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Carmelo Anthony	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.13	0.13	-0.25	0.01	19	64%	0.19	3	-0.33	17	65%	-0.13
Anthony Carter	-0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.4,-0.4	-0.12	-0.28	-0.00	9	39%	-0.18	5	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3	0.30	0.17	0.14	0.01	24	63%	0.39	3	-0.09	15	67%	-0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25	0.25	0.14	0.11	-0.01	11	73%	0.25	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.14	-0.01	14	54%	0.22	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	62%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Ryan Hollins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.06	-0.11	0.01	12	61%	0.13	3	-0.19	7	71%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	12	28%	-0.14	4	-0.15	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	1.8	32.5	14.8	28.6	2.0	37.2	144.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +47.6%

CHA +13.8%

DEN -29.8%

CHA +16.1%

CHA +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	13.5	14.7	15.4	112.6	117.8	105.7
season	13.3	15.8		108.2	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		107.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	12.0	15.4	13.9	13.5
CHA	15.9	14.2	12.3	16.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	40	38	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.05	9	-12	21	13.1	13.8	-0.63	15.6	14.2	1.35
Linas Kleiza	42	41	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.08	7	-10	17	13.2	13.7	-0.50	14.0	15.2	-1.20
Yakhouba Diawara	31	31	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.02	6	-9	15	12.8	13.8	-1.04	13.6	15.2	-1.54
Carmelo Anthony	86	84	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-2	1	13.6	13.4	0.15	14.7	15.0	-0.35
Marcus Camby	86	83	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	1	-5	13.4	14.1	-0.70	14.4	16.1	-1.63
Allen Iverson	95	93	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.31	-12	9	-21	13.7	11.6	2.07	14.5	16.7	-2.21
Anthony Carter	63	62	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.60	-4	1	-5	13.7	13.3	0.34	15.0	14.3	0.70
Kenyon Martin	72	73	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.31	-16	13	-29	14.0	12.4	1.59	15.5	12.6	2.91

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	59	62	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.43	8	-5	13	15.2	14.0	1.22	14.2	12.5	1.70
Nazr Mohammed	62	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.39	6	-3	9	13.7	16.4	-2.72	13.0	14.4	-1.32
Gerald Wallace	96	97	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	14.7	15.6	-0.93	13.3	16.8	-3.50
Raymond Felton	82	86	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	0	3	14.9	13.9	0.94	13.8	12.2	1.56
Emeka Okafor	71	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	0	3	15.6	12.6	3.05	13.9	12.8	1.09
Jared Dudley	20	19	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	-1	5	13.7	15.0	-1.20	13.2	13.6	-0.46
Jeff McInnis	52	51	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	5	-7	15.7	13.7	1.94	13.7	13.4	0.34
Ryan Hollins	3	3	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	8	-13	11.7	14.8	-3.14	11.7	13.6	-1.92
Matt Carroll	60	61	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	10	-17	13.7	16.2	-2.45	13.0	14.3	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.5,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.35,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.38,0.78,0.77,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 103, CHI 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.78,0.98,1,1	92.3%
NYK 109, CHI 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.54,0.86,0.9,1	91.7%
HOU 104, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.64,0.91,0.99,1	90.8%