NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	8.1 [215]		MVP	Eddie Jones (DAL): +13.9%
Dallas Mavericks	94		Comeback	3.8 [802]		LVP	Alexander Johnson (MIA): -20.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.01	9	74%	0.25	4	-0.15	5	60%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	10	67%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Earl Barron	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	58%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Daequan Cook	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.17	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Jackson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	6	0%	-0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.2	0.02	-0.22	-0.01	14	47%	-0.13	1	-0.07	8	62%	-0.05
Alexander Johnson	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.05	-0.16	-0.00	6	50%	-0.10	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.00	0.02	9	85%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.02,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	20	51%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	13	45%	0.10	5	-0.20	7	71%	0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	17	43%	0.09	3	-0.26	8	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.5	32.3	19.4	27.4	2.7	37.2	147.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +15.4%

DAL +11.7%

DAL +18.0%

DAL +0.7%

DAL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.0	15.4	97.8	104.4	105.7
season	16.0	16.1		99.0	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.4		105.0	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	15.9	19.4	15.6	16.8
DAL	14.6	16.1	16.6	13.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Barron	33	32	0.34	-0.84	1.19	-0.01	12	-17	29	16.2	17.1	-0.99	14.6	15.3	-0.68
Luke Jackson	44	41	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.02	5	-10	15	14.9	18.5	-3.58	14.4	15.5	-1.09
Mark Blount	49	49	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	3	-11	18.7	14.5	4.19	15.3	14.7	0.55
Alexander Johnson	39	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-6	7	16.6	16.9	-0.29	17.5	13.2	4.31
Chris Quinn	87	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-4	3	16.7	18.5	-1.80	15.0	15.7	-0.75
Ricky Davis	80	81	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	0	-5	16.8	16.9	-0.15	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Daequan Cook	66	66	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.27	-16	11	-27	17.5	14.8	2.68	15.0	15.2	-0.24
Udonis Haslem	57	57	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.37	-13	8	-21	16.3	17.6	-1.24	14.0	16.8	-2.87

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	64	62	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.38	19	-14	33	15.1	14.9	0.21	16.7	17.0	-0.32
Dirk Nowitzki	71	71	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.38	16	-11	27	14.8	16.0	-1.23	17.0	16.0	1.00
Josh Howard	71	72	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.32	16	-11	27	15.0	15.3	-0.36	17.0	16.1	0.85
Eddie Jones	53	54	0.79	-0.28	1.07	0.32	16	-11	27	14.5	15.8	-1.37	16.7	16.9	-0.19
DeSagana Diop	60	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	-5	15	15.3	14.4	0.90	18.1	14.0	4.10
Trenton Hassell	13	13	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	6	-7	13.2	15.4	-2.20	17.0	16.7	0.26
Juwan Howard	11	12	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	10	-15	16.2	14.9	1.31	14.7	17.1	-2.34
Devean George	5	6	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.05	-6	11	-17	17.6	14.9	2.72	15.8	16.8	-1.01
Jerry Stackhouse	24	27	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.01	-9	14	-23	14.2	15.3	-1.13	15.3	17.4	-2.06
Jason Terry	48	47	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.11	-16	21	-37	15.8	14.2	1.63	16.5	17.1	-0.60
Brandon Bass	30	30	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	0.01	-15	20	-35	15.5	14.8	0.70	16.1	17.1	-1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.31,0.3,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.67,0.69,0.54,0.59,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 85, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.45,0.76,0.9,1	91.8%
NYK 101, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.66,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.92,1	91.3%
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	91.2%