NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	85		Excitement	8.5 [198]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +12.6%
San Antonio Spurs	87		Comeback	2.5 [765]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -19.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	2	25%	-0.04	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.08
Jason Terry	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	18	37%	-0.08	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Josh Howard	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.03	-0.13	0.01	10	61%	-0.02	5	-0.15	8	87%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,-0.01,-0.01,-0.18	0.05	-0.23	-0.00	21	52%	-0.11	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.2,-0.2	-0.05	-0.15	-0.00	20	43%	-0.08	2	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.11	0.00	5	50%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	18	45%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.12	0.01	24	52%	0.07	4	-0.17	12	58%	-0.06
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	14	44%	-0.02	4	-0.17	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.8	3.4	29.4	17.5	31.3	3.7	38.0	157.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.2%

SAS +15.1%

DAL -19.7%

SAS +15.6%

SAS +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	16.6	15.6	92.4	96.7	104.4
season	16.4	16.3		109.0	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		99.4	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.3	14.5	16.0	14.5	15.1
SAS	15.3	15.6	16.0	19.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	38	38	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.12	-2	0	-2	16.0	14.4	1.57	15.2	17.7	-2.47
Devin Harris	30	31	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-5	8	16.2	14.5	1.70	15.1	17.4	-2.26
DJ Mbenga	4	5	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-2	2	21.5	14.8	6.74	12.0	16.9	-4.88
Marquis Daniels	14	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-1	0	13.4	15.3	-1.92	16.6	16.6	0.04
DeSagana Diop	33	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	2	-6	13.8	15.8	-2.02	16.2	16.8	-0.64
Josh Howard	78	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-6	10	15.1	14.9	0.15	16.4	17.6	-1.19
Erick Dampier	50	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.40	0	-2	2	15.5	14.6	0.89	17.7	15.2	2.54
Jerry Stackhouse	66	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.53	0	-2	2	14.9	15.4	-0.46	17.0	15.5	1.46
Jason Terry	66	63	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.35	-7	5	-12	14.9	15.5	-0.62	17.0	15.7	1.30
Dirk Nowitzki	81	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.49	-3	1	-4	14.7	17.9	-3.24	17.2	13.2	3.95

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	77	80	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.46	6	-4	10	17.1	14.0	3.05	14.8	17.0	-2.24
Manu Ginobili	70	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.42	5	-3	8	16.8	15.9	0.91	15.0	15.3	-0.29
Bruce Bowen	61	65	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.47	3	-1	4	17.1	15.5	1.61	14.9	15.4	-0.45
Robert Horry	60	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	0	2	17.1	15.6	1.57	14.9	15.5	-0.63
Tony Parker	69	71	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	4	-6	15.8	19.4	-3.61	15.2	14.7	0.50
Nick Van Exel	21	21	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	-2	6	19.4	15.8	3.61	14.7	15.2	-0.50
Rasho Nesterovic	16	15	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	2	-2	15.2	16.9	-1.73	17.7	14.5	3.12
Nazr Mohammed	4	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	3	-4	12.7	16.8	-4.04	16.0	15.0	0.98
Brent Barry	29	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	3	-4	15.5	17.1	-1.61	15.4	14.9	0.45
Michael Finley	43	45	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	8	-14	15.7	17.5	-1.84	15.0	15.1	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.45,0.76,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 81, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	93.2%
MIA 74, NYK 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.68,0.69,1	91.8%
MIL 94, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.87,0.96,1	91.8%