NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	8.6 [149]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +17.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	4.2 [364]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -28.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.19,0.05	0.13	-0.07	0.01	26	56%	0.05	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Allen Iverson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.03	0.08	-0.08	-0.03	26	53%	0.10	2	-0.07	12	92%	0.05
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,-0.09	0.00	-0.09	0.00	3	67%	0.10	1	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jones	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	8	19%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.18	0.18	-0.03	0.20	-0.01	11	43%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.02
Martell Webster	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.00	-0.00	12	76%	0.16	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	7	78%	0.23	3	-0.14	4	75%	-0.08
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	16	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.07
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	2	75%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.06	-0.22	0.00	15	43%	-0.23	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.0	31.2	15.3	25.6	2.5	37.4	139.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +37.7%

POR +8.8%

DEN -5.7%

POR +0.4%

POR +8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.5	17.1	15.4	105.5	108.8	105.7
season	13.3	16.7		108.2	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		106.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.6	15.6	15.4	16.1	14.5
POR	16.1	17.1	17.3	18.1	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	69	70	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.16	13	-16	29	13.8	16.9	-3.11	16.9	17.7	-0.80
Jelani McCoy	37	36	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-2	1	13.4	15.4	-2.02	16.9	17.2	-0.30
J.R. Smith	16	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-5	7	16.1	14.2	1.91	16.4	17.3	-0.88
Carmelo Anthony	78	77	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.38	4	-7	11	14.1	17.5	-3.49	17.3	16.0	1.30
Eduardo Najera	46	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-3	3	15.1	14.0	1.04	16.8	17.4	-0.55
Bobby Jones	24	24	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.17	-11	8	-19	16.6	13.8	2.76	18.0	16.8	1.28
Allen Iverson	86	85	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	2	-7	14.4	16.4	-1.96	17.1	16.8	0.28
Linas Kleiza	64	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.42	-5	2	-7	14.2	15.3	-1.06	17.3	16.7	0.57
Chucky Atkins	35	36	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.25	-12	9	-21	16.5	13.4	3.10	16.9	17.2	-0.30

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	49	50	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.44	11	-8	19	17.6	16.5	1.16	16.1	12.6	3.53
Travis Outlaw	42	42	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-7	17	17.7	16.6	1.10	16.2	13.2	3.00
James Jones	49	48	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.51	4	-1	5	16.5	17.8	-1.23	16.0	13.0	2.98
Channing Frye	37	37	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	-5	13	17.2	17.0	0.20	15.2	14.1	1.08
LaMarcus Aldridge	63	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	2	-1	17.0	17.3	-0.32	14.1	15.7	-1.65
Steve Blake	52	51	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.18	2	1	1	17.4	16.7	0.62	13.5	15.9	-2.50
Brandon Roy	74	74	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.29	-4	7	-11	16.4	20.4	-4.00	14.0	17.0	-3.01
Sergio Rodriguez	7	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.01	-1	4	-5	19.3	16.9	2.37	15.5	14.5	1.04
Joel Przybilla	28	27	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.01	-6	9	-15	16.7	17.3	-0.61	12.7	15.3	-2.57
Martell Webster	54	53	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.04	-10	13	-23	17.4	16.6	0.76	13.2	16.4	-3.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.38,0.48,0.72,0.81,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.86,0.63,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 86, UTA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.48,0.75,0.64,0.68,0.58,1	89.7%
WAS 84, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.68,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.45,0.75,0.73,1	89.5%
CLE 98, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.38,0.48,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.57,0.58,1	89.5%