NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	91		Excitement	6.6 [449]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +22.9%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	1.3 [555]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): -22.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	13	67%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	7	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	16	62%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike James	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Luther Head	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	6	21%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	20	38%	-0.12	3	-0.10	10	50%	-0.11

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.23	-0.01	0.20	-0.04	24	51%	0.37	5	-0.14	13	69%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	12	72%	0.21	6	-0.18	12	50%	-0.07
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	9	52%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	55%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	3.4	35.2	18.8	31.0	3.5	37.5	158.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.9%

MIA +16.7%

HOU -8.6%

HOU -3.4%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	17.4	15.5	15.4	103.4	112.6	105.7
season	16.2	16.0		104.6	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.3	17.3	18.2	17.0	17.4
MIA	17.0	14.7	15.2	15.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	19	19	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.17	5	-12	17	17.3	17.5	-0.23	15.5	15.4	0.09
Mike James	33	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-8	9	16.6	18.0	-1.39	14.6	16.0	-1.43
Bonzi Wells	24	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-3	-1	17.4	17.5	-0.04	16.0	15.2	0.79
Charles Hayes	19	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.00	-5	-2	-3	18.2	17.2	0.91	16.8	15.0	1.81
Dikembe Mutombo	24	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-2	-3	16.5	17.8	-1.24	14.5	15.8	-1.23
Yao Ming	61	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-3	-1	18.1	16.0	2.14	16.0	14.0	2.07
Shane Battier	68	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-6	5	17.6	16.7	0.90	15.2	16.3	-1.15
Luis Scola	67	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-5	3	17.8	16.4	1.33	15.2	16.2	-1.03
Rafer Alston	49	48	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	3	-13	17.1	17.8	-0.72	15.8	15.1	0.74
Tracy McGrady	76	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	3	-13	17.2	19.0	-1.80	15.3	16.4	-1.03

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	71	72	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-8	23	15.2	16.7	-1.50	17.7	16.5	1.15
Dwyane Wade	76	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.40	6	1	5	15.3	16.5	-1.24	18.0	13.7	4.28
Shaquille O'Neal	63	59	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-5	17	15.7	14.7	1.04	17.4	17.6	-0.16
Jason Williams	81	83	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-1	9	15.4	15.8	-0.40	17.4	17.8	-0.38
Ricky Davis	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	3	1	15.6	15.1	0.48	17.3	18.0	-0.68
Anfernee Hardaway	41	42	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	6	-5	15.2	15.7	-0.45	16.3	18.5	-2.26
Alonzo Mourning	17	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	8	-9	15.5	15.5	0.01	16.6	17.7	-1.08
Mark Blount	20	21	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.07	-10	17	-27	16.3	15.2	1.16	18.6	17.1	1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 104, NOP 111	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.9,0.85,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.98,1	93.5%
BKN 93, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.61,0.84,0.98,1,1	93.1%
SAC 93, DEN 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.84,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.5%