NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	7.2 [345]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +10.6%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	2.9 [546]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -35.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	18	53%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	6	46%	0.17	1	-0.10	1	0%	-0.12
Shaquille O'Neal	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	10	71%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.05
Smush Parker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	55%	0.04	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	8	45%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.06
Mark Blount	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.35	0.01	-0.33	0.03	15	55%	-0.27	3	-0.08	12	58%	-0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	-0.03	0.04	14	76%	0.16	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.01	7	60%	0.15	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.03	-0.01	8	81%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	15	51%	0.14	4	-0.19	7	100%	0.08
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	12	44%	0.09	4	-0.15	3	67%	-0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.8	31.4	15.7	25.5	2.0	40.0	143.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +39.5%

BOS +16.7%

BOS +9.8%

MIA -27.7%

BOS +11.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.7	15.4	98.9	98.9	105.7
season	16.0	15.6		99.0	108.0
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.3	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	13.5	17.5	15.3	15.4
BOS	13.9	18.6	15.3	15.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	19	18	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.06	4	-5	9	12.4	16.2	-3.78	16.2	15.6	0.64
Shaquille O'Neal	49	49	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	0	-1	16.4	14.3	2.06	16.1	15.2	0.92
Mark Blount	11	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	0	-1	13.5	15.7	-2.24	16.5	15.6	0.89
Smush Parker	24	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	0	-1	13.8	16.0	-2.15	16.1	15.6	0.50
Alonzo Mourning	38	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.12	-1	0	-1	14.2	16.3	-2.02	15.8	15.6	0.19
Daequan Cook	29	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.45	10	-11	21	15.5	15.4	0.09	14.8	16.1	-1.31
Ricky Davis	80	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.47	2	-3	5	15.7	13.7	1.93	15.7	15.5	0.24
Dwyane Wade	72	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	3	-7	15.8	13.9	1.95	15.5	16.4	-0.89
Jason Williams	65	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.35	-5	4	-9	16.2	13.5	2.75	15.8	15.6	0.22
Udonis Haslem	73	75	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.49	-8	7	-15	15.6	14.9	0.67	15.5	16.7	-1.19

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	73	71	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.65	0	1	-1	15.5	16.5	-1.07	15.8	14.1	1.66
Ray Allen	86	85	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.40	7	-6	13	16.1	11.4	4.63	15.7	12.4	3.24
Kevin Garnett	76	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-3	7	15.8	15.2	0.65	16.1	12.1	3.99
Kendrick Perkins	59	60	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.03	14	-13	27	15.9	15.4	0.52	16.3	13.8	2.42
James Posey	56	53	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.56	-8	9	-17	15.6	15.9	-0.35	14.5	16.7	-2.25
Paul Pierce	59	59	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.37	-7	8	-15	15.1	16.8	-1.71	16.2	14.1	2.08
Tony Allen	6	6	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	-1	3	16.8	15.6	1.20	10.5	15.8	-5.27
Scot Pollard	17	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	4	-7	15.2	15.8	-0.65	12.1	16.1	-3.99
Brian Scalabrine	14	14	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	6	-11	15.0	15.8	-0.84	11.9	16.1	-4.21
Eddie House	19	20	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.18	1	0	1	16.9	15.4	1.56	14.8	15.6	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.88,0.93,0.81,0.54,0.67,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 95, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.91,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.78,0.78,0.83,1	92.2%
UTA 98, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.67,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.64,0.55,0.85,1	92.2%
SEA 88, HOU 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.72,0.56,0.84,1	91.8%