NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	7.5 [354]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +22.2%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	105		Comeback	39.8 [32]		LVP	Chris Paul (NOK): -30.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.06,0.22	0.16	0.09	0.03	22	62%	0.22	0	0.00	6	83%	0.04
Steve Blake	0.10	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1	0.00	0.09	-0.01	11	45%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	21	47%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.04
J.R. Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	10	62%	0.08	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.01	7	72%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	64%	0.06	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	9	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	44%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Vinicius	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.12	-0.01	23	60%	0.03	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.12	-0.00	16	41%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.3	-0.30	-0.09	-0.21	-0.00	21	41%	-0.24	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.7	26.0	14.8	22.2	1.7	34.4	126.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +47.8%

DEN +17.2%

NOK -18.3%

DEN +5.4%

NOK -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOK	NBA	DEN	NOK	NBA
this game	13.7	17.3	15.4	115.1	112.9	104.5
season	14.0	16.0		105.8	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.3		104.4	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.8	13.7	15.0	13.3	13.7
NOK	14.8	17.6	17.0	20.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	76	75	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.46	10	-8	18	13.4	14.7	-1.26	17.7	15.6	2.08
Marcus Camby	67	68	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.48	7	-5	12	13.1	15.2	-2.16	17.5	16.8	0.73
Nene	73	73	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-7	16	13.5	14.4	-0.98	17.8	15.4	2.41
Carmelo Anthony	78	77	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.49	5	-3	8	13.2	16.1	-2.93	17.6	15.9	1.71
Allen Iverson	82	82	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.54	-7	9	-16	13.6	14.0	-0.37	17.0	19.7	-2.76
Yakhouba Diawara	8	8	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.05	3	-1	4	15.0	13.6	1.45	15.7	17.4	-1.69
J.R. Smith	8	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	6	-10	15.6	13.5	2.13	18.1	17.2	0.92
Linas Kleiza	30	33	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.18	2	0	2	14.3	13.4	0.97	16.3	17.8	-1.48
Reggie Evans	10	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	9	-16	15.3	13.5	1.82	16.2	17.4	-1.18
Eduardo Najera	33	33	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.01	-8	10	-18	15.2	12.8	2.43	16.4	17.8	-1.39

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Jackson	42	43	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.00	8	-10	18	17.4	17.2	0.25	14.5	13.0	1.55
Hilton Armstrong	25	25	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.05	6	-8	14	17.8	17.1	0.64	15.5	13.0	2.47
Jannero Pargo	20	19	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.10	1	-3	4	17.6	17.2	0.46	14.9	13.4	1.60
Marcus Vinicius	10	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	16.9	17.3	-0.44	16.0	13.4	2.57
Rasual Butler	83	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-2	2	17.3	16.9	0.44	13.4	16.0	-2.57
David West	85	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	-1	0	17.4	15.7	1.69	13.7	14.0	-0.35
Marc Jackson	75	73	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.33	-10	8	-18	17.0	18.6	-1.64	13.4	14.6	-1.18
Chris Paul	73	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.54	-3	1	-4	17.2	17.6	-0.46	13.4	14.9	-1.60
Devin Brown	52	52	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.57	-9	7	-16	17.2	17.4	-0.27	12.5	15.1	-2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.55,0.63,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 98, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.6,0.67,0.52,0.67,0.58,0	91.6%
DEN 111, MEM 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.94,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.9,0.71,0.57,0.58,0	91.1%
BOS 77, HOU 72	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.82,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.79,0.56,0.16,0	90.8%