NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	96		Excitement	7.6 [323]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +48.6%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	12.1 [180]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -40.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.22	0.06	0.14	-0.02	11	73%	0.32	5	-0.10	11	73%	-0.02
Ike Diogu	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	3	90%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	7	71%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.00	9	50%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Foster	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	5	83%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith McLeod	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	12	50%	0.05	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15,-0.12,-0.23,-0.4	-0.17	-0.24	-0.01	13	20%	-0.33	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.49,0.49	0.49	0.22	0.27	0.01	6	129%	0.49	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	12	72%	0.21	4	-0.08	5	20%	-0.08
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.09	0.00	11	45%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	11	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.17,-0.11,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.08	0.00	22	46%	0.15	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	1.0	32.1	17.8	26.1	1.7	39.3	145.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +62.6%

IND -17.1%

IND -11.2%

MIA +17.5%

IND -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	14.8	15.4	109.1	112.4	104.5
season	15.3	16.0		101.3	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.3		104.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	20.8	13.8	18.8	18.0	17.7
MIA	11.4	16.9	17.2	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Diogu	17	19	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.10	9	-13	22	17.5	17.8	-0.33	17.0	14.2	2.77
Shawne Williams	32	31	0.23	-0.73	0.97	0.15	3	-7	10	17.2	18.1	-0.92	16.3	14.0	2.26
Keith McLeod	46	48	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.11	2	-6	8	18.3	17.1	1.19	14.6	15.1	-0.56
Jeff Foster	56	56	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.12	-3	-1	-2	18.3	16.7	1.55	14.7	15.1	-0.43
Troy Murphy	47	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.44	-1	-3	2	18.0	17.5	0.52	15.2	14.3	0.89
Danny Granger	77	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	4	-12	18.4	13.3	5.10	14.5	17.0	-2.49
Darrell Armstrong	42	41	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.46	-7	3	-10	17.1	18.3	-1.19	15.1	14.6	0.56
Mike Dunleavy	68	69	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.60	-4	0	-4	17.1	19.7	-2.60	14.5	15.9	-1.39
Jermaine O'Neal	55	55	-0.91	0.41	-1.31	-0.58	-11	7	-18	17.2	18.6	-1.39	13.9	16.4	-2.48

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	61	60	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.46	12	-8	20	13.9	16.7	-2.82	17.9	17.3	0.61
James Posey	46	46	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.51	4	0	4	15.5	14.1	1.36	15.8	19.8	-4.01
Dwyane Wade	65	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	0	4	14.4	16.0	-1.67	17.8	17.6	0.18
Antoine Walker	57	54	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	4	-4	15.1	14.2	0.89	17.5	18.1	-0.52
Udonis Haslem	35	36	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	-2	8	13.8	15.5	-1.63	17.4	18.0	-0.64
Shaquille O'Neal	62	62	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	3	-2	14.6	15.2	-0.58	18.3	16.3	2.03
Chris Quinn	18	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	7	-10	16.3	14.5	1.83	16.2	18.1	-1.98
Alonzo Mourning	23	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	4	-4	16.6	14.2	2.35	17.6	17.8	-0.23
Eddie Jones	45	44	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.11	-2	6	-8	14.4	15.2	-0.76	19.3	16.2	3.16
Jason Kapono	33	32	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.16	-2	6	-8	15.8	14.3	1.49	18.5	17.3	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.59,1	91.1%
ORL 118, PHX 123	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.14,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.42,1	91.0%
POR 102, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.47,0.29,0.1,0.14,0.02,0.1,0.42,1	90.5%