NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	118		Excitement	8.9 [152]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +32.0%
Phoenix Suns	123		Comeback	10.3 [197]		LVP	Darko Milicic (ORL): -17.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.32	0.15	0.16	-0.00	13	80%	0.41	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.00	14	64%	0.16	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.06
Dwight Howard	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	12	60%	0.13	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.02	7	37%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Keyon Dooling	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.01	10	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,-0.05	0.04	-0.08	0.01	15	56%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	57%	0.06	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	10	40%	-0.06	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.18	0.09	0.00	7	121%	0.33	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.11	-0.00	13	71%	0.25	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.23	0.23	0.04	0.18	-0.01	21	57%	0.34	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	13	64%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.08
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	8	78%	0.19	6	-0.16	7	100%	0.05
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	6	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	11	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.8	30.2	15.5	28.5	2.6	35.0	137.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +29.0%

PHX +8.3%

PHX +5.6%

PHX +14.6%

ORL -7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	PHX	NBA	ORL	PHX	NBA
this game	15.4	12.5	15.6	115.7	117.1	104.4
season	16.4	13.8		104.4	110.2
opponent	16.1	15.7		105.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	13.9	15.6	16.4	15.4
PHX	12.4	12.4	13.3	11.9	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	52	54	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.14	0	-5	5	16.4	14.3	2.14	13.7	11.2	2.53
Keyon Dooling	45	47	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-5	5	14.8	15.8	-1.02	12.7	12.3	0.45
Pat Garrity	23	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.06	2	-7	9	14.3	15.7	-1.35	11.8	12.7	-0.89
DeShawn Stevenson	53	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.15	-8	3	-11	15.6	15.2	0.36	13.4	11.5	1.88
Jameer Nelson	56	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.39	3	-8	11	15.3	15.5	-0.16	11.9	13.3	-1.45
Darko Milicic	57	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-2	-1	15.4	15.3	0.11	12.0	13.0	-0.99
Carlos Arroyo	71	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.39	-5	0	-5	15.2	15.8	-0.64	12.2	13.2	-0.98
Hedo Turkoglu	87	89	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.47	-3	-2	-1	15.3	15.7	-0.40	12.2	14.0	-1.80
Dwight Howard	66	67	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.52	-11	6	-17	15.5	15.2	0.26	12.4	12.5	-0.08

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	84	82	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.50	8	-3	11	12.7	11.6	1.07	15.5	14.8	0.67
Leandro Barbosa	65	62	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.36	10	-5	15	11.7	13.7	-2.06	15.8	14.7	1.06
Steve Nash	76	74	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.41	6	-1	7	12.4	12.6	-0.20	15.5	15.2	0.29
Raja Bell	84	81	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	1	3	12.3	13.3	-1.01	15.2	16.1	-0.89
Shawn Marion	91	90	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.38	2	3	-1	12.7	10.7	2.03	15.6	14.0	1.58
Pat Burke	10	10	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	-2	9	11.6	12.6	-0.97	16.1	15.3	0.78
James Jones	42	42	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.09	-1	6	-7	12.8	12.3	0.56	15.0	15.6	-0.63
Eddie House	29	28	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.06	-1	6	-7	12.6	12.4	0.20	15.2	15.5	-0.29
Tim Thomas	44	41	-0.58	1.08	-1.65	-0.28	-10	15	-25	12.9	12.1	0.78	14.7	15.9	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.14,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.59,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.07,0.05,0.22,0.58,1	91.2%
IND 96, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.58,1	91.0%
CHI 94, CHH 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.24,0.91,1	90.0%