NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	111		Excitement	8.9 [147]		MVP	Joey Graham (TOR): +31.7%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	4.0 [162]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -22.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joey Graham	0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.14	0.17	-0.00	8	86%	0.33	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.11
Anthony Parker	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25	0.15	0.10	-0.00	9	83%	0.27	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.07
Chris Bosh	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.15,0.12,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.03	15	62%	0.22	3	-0.08	15	93%	0.10
Morris Peterson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.02	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	8	37%	-0.06
Luke Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	37%	0.03	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	4	100%	0.08	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	11	32%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	7	76%	0.12	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.09	0.09	0.16	-0.05	0.02	22	73%	0.36	6	-0.27	7	100%	0.06
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	6	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	12	60%	0.17	7	-0.21	6	67%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	0.01	15	54%	-0.01	3	-0.12	5	60%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.22	-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	-0.01	8	33%	-0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	30.2	15.7	28.1	1.0	42.0	144.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +13.0%

TOR +23.9%

ORL -11.7%

TOR +23.4%

TOR +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.6	15.4	118.1	114.9	104.5
season	15.2	15.9		104.7	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.0	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.8	14.4	16.0	13.5	15.1
ORL	16.0	16.9	16.7	13.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Parker	73	75	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.53	3	0	3	15.7	13.0	2.67	15.8	14.6	1.17
Chris Bosh	90	91	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.41	1	2	-1	15.1	13.5	1.64	15.5	16.7	-1.14
T.J. Ford	55	55	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.48	-2	5	-7	16.4	13.2	3.28	16.3	14.5	1.80
Joey Graham	56	55	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	-6	15	14.0	16.6	-2.61	14.6	16.9	-2.32
Rasho Nesterovic	37	36	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.36	-3	6	-9	16.9	13.9	3.09	16.1	15.2	0.89
Juan Dixon	48	47	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.33	-4	7	-11	14.9	15.3	-0.45	15.0	16.2	-1.21
Luke Jackson	12	13	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.06	6	-3	9	12.8	15.4	-2.57	16.4	15.4	0.95
Jose Calderon	39	39	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.07	5	-2	7	13.2	16.4	-3.28	14.5	16.3	-1.80
Morris Peterson	17	16	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.06	3	0	3	14.2	15.3	-1.10	18.1	15.0	3.09
Kris Humphries	43	43	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	6	-9	14.9	15.2	-0.31	15.5	15.6	-0.18

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	12	15	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-4	5	15.2	15.6	-0.46	17.1	14.7	2.45
Carlos Arroyo	13	13	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-3	3	19.2	15.0	4.26	14.8	15.1	-0.26
JJ Redick	11	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-1	-1	16.2	15.5	0.70	14.8	15.1	-0.28
Trevor Ariza	32	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.14	-7	4	-11	15.1	15.8	-0.71	13.8	15.8	-1.98
Tony Battie	50	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	2	-7	16.8	14.1	2.68	15.3	14.8	0.53
Grant Hill	72	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-6	9	15.8	14.9	0.91	15.3	14.3	1.05
Keyon Dooling	43	44	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.54	3	-6	9	14.4	16.5	-2.11	15.3	14.9	0.37
Hedo Turkoglu	88	88	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.47	0	-3	3	15.3	19.8	-4.56	15.0	16.8	-1.88
Dwight Howard	88	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.44	-2	-1	-1	15.7	13.3	2.38	15.3	12.1	3.17
Jameer Nelson	61	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	3	-9	14.7	17.1	-2.40	14.5	16.0	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.14,0.27,0.14,0.35,0.22,0.2,0.46,0.17,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 101, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.41,0.33,0.45,0.28,0.1,0.04,0	91.8%
CHA 100, LAC 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.07,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.22,0.15,0	91.4%
SAS 99, OKC 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.4,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.17,0	91.2%