NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	101		Excitement	6.9 [414]		MVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): +18.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	3.9 [76]		LVP	Michael Dickerson (MEM): -8.4%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.12	0.01	9	79%	0.24	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.04
Shane Battier	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	9	62%	0.11	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Wesley Person	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.01	9	64%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.03	8	64%	0.15	4	-0.10	6	67%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	2	100%	0.06	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Batiste	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	8	40%	-0.01	1	-0.06	4	0%	-0.05
Michael Dickerson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.01	-0.09	18	56%	0.18	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	11	52%	-0.02	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	12	42%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.04	-0.12	0.01	16	61%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.03
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.02,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	8	67%	0.02	3	-0.10	11	55%	-0.12
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.7	27.2	15.7	24.3	2.4	32.5	126.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +35.8%

MEM +4.9%

MEM +16.4%

MIL -14.4%

MEM +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIL	NBA	MEM	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.3	15.5	107.4	101.1	101.6
season	15.3	15.4		101.8	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.2		106.5	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	17.8	14.2	14.7	18.9	16.3
MIL	12.2	16.5	14.7	13.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	59	58	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.45	14	-8	22	15.9	17.0	-1.08	13.1	16.3	-3.22
Pau Gasol	59	60	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-8	22	15.9	17.0	-1.08	13.2	16.3	-3.05
Wesley Person	58	58	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.45	7	-1	8	16.4	16.2	0.25	13.1	16.2	-3.13
Shane Battier	61	62	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-5	16	16.1	16.8	-0.68	13.6	15.7	-2.17
Lorenzen Wright	45	46	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.05	6	0	6	15.8	16.8	-0.91	13.6	15.0	-1.39
Mike Batiste	46	45	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.26	-4	10	-14	17.2	15.5	1.76	14.9	13.8	1.18
Stromile Swift	38	37	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	10	-14	16.4	16.2	0.17	16.2	13.1	3.17
Drew Gooden	33	32	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	11	-16	16.8	16.1	0.68	15.7	13.6	2.17
Michael Dickerson	36	36	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.13	-1	7	-8	16.2	16.4	-0.25	16.2	13.1	3.13
Earl Watson	35	36	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.13	-8	14	-22	17.0	15.9	1.08	16.3	13.1	3.22

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	52	54	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.14	10	-16	26	13.6	15.2	-1.53	16.7	15.8	0.95
Ervin Johnson	31	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	-1	-4	14.3	14.3	0.01	16.1	16.4	-0.28
Jason Caffey	44	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-6	6	15.2	13.5	1.75	15.7	16.9	-1.21
Kevin Ollie	34	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-5	4	16.1	13.3	2.77	17.3	15.8	1.49
Toni Kukoc	51	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-5	4	14.9	13.6	1.36	16.8	15.7	1.18
Ray Allen	72	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-9	12	13.7	16.2	-2.49	16.9	14.4	2.55
Sam Cassell	70	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	13.5	16.7	-3.26	16.6	15.7	0.87
Anthony Mason	73	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	2	-10	13.7	16.3	-2.59	16.4	16.0	0.43
Michael Redd	43	43	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	0.03	-23	17	-40	15.4	13.4	1.94	13.6	18.6	-4.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.41,0.33,0.45,0.28,0.1,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, OKC 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.4,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.17,0	92.4%
TOR 111, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.14,0.27,0.14,0.35,0.22,0.2,0.46,0.17,0.09,0	91.8%
CHI 100, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.02,0,0	91.0%