NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	7.3 [380]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +14.3%
Atlanta Hawks	97		Comeback	2.1 [744]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -15.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.07	0.04	22	60%	0.21	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Chris Duhon	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	-0.00	9	61%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.02	9	35%	0.05	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.04	16	59%	0.09	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	3	62%	0.03	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	14	50%	0.01	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	0.00	2	80%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	14	50%	0.07	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	10	68%	0.14	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	12	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.02	7	57%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	7	60%	0.06	4	-0.17	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	22	48%	-0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	2.0	30.0	15.7	25.2	2.5	38.2	144.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +34.0%

ATL -9.4%

ATL -2.7%

CHI +27.2%

CHI +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	13.6	16.4	15.4	109.4	101.0	104.5
season	14.5	16.1		103.1	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.9		106.1	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	14.8	14.4	11.3	13.6
ATL	15.6	17.2	18.3	14.8	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	84	84	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-7	22	13.9	11.9	1.98	16.9	12.7	4.12
Kirk Hinrich	77	76	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	0	8	13.6	13.9	-0.38	16.4	16.0	0.38
P.J. Brown	44	45	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.10	13	-5	18	15.0	12.5	2.42	17.0	15.8	1.17
Ben Wallace	71	70	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-3	14	14.0	12.7	1.25	16.9	15.0	1.86
Tyrus Thomas	54	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	6	-4	12.5	15.2	-2.70	16.1	16.7	-0.64
Ben Gordon	69	70	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	1	6	14.0	12.6	1.41	16.0	17.4	-1.41
Chris Duhon	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	8	-8	13.6	13.7	-0.19	16.5	16.2	0.28
Thabo Sefolosha	12	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.07	-7	15	-22	11.9	13.9	-1.98	12.7	16.9	-4.12
Malik Allen	17	17	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.13	-9	17	-26	11.6	14.1	-2.43	14.4	16.8	-2.43

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelden Williams	10	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-8	8	16.8	16.3	0.50	13.1	13.7	-0.64
Solomon Jones	36	36	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-13	18	17.5	15.6	1.88	13.4	13.8	-0.41
Zaza Pachulia	62	61	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-9	10	17.0	15.2	1.78	14.6	12.0	2.55
Salim Stoudamire	38	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-12	16	16.6	16.2	0.37	11.4	15.1	-3.68
Anthony Johnson	49	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-7	6	16.6	16.1	0.49	14.8	12.5	2.25
Josh Smith	89	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-3	-2	16.0	20.6	-4.55	13.8	11.7	2.07
Tyronn Lue	51	51	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	3	-14	15.8	17.0	-1.13	12.4	15.1	-2.76
Josh Childress	68	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	3	-14	15.6	18.2	-2.63	14.1	12.4	1.72
Marvin Williams	77	77	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.25	-22	14	-36	16.4	16.2	0.18	13.7	13.3	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.29,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.15,0.06,0.14,0.22,0.09,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 89, CHH 79	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.52,0.32,0.3,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0	93.5%
IND 109, PHX 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.12,0.22,0.07,0.04,0,0,0	93.0%
POR 84, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.07,0.1,0.22,0.06,0.09,0	92.6%