NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	98		Excitement	6.5 [531]		MVP	Corliss Williamson (SAC): +17.6%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	1.2 [1002]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -26.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.05	0.03	14	75%	0.21	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.05	0.07	0.01	16	58%	0.14	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Troy Murphy	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.02	12	63%	0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.07
Ike Diogu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	43%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Danny Granger	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	11	48%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rawle Marshall	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	8	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.26	-0.11	-0.13	0.02	13	41%	-0.11	5	-0.15	1	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	7	87%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	17	60%	0.28	4	-0.13	11	82%	0.05
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	3	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	15	65%	0.16	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	2	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	42%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	62%	0.05	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	10	40%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	10	30%	-0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	32.3	16.2	21.5	1.8	35.8	135.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +37.6%

SAC +18.3%

SAC +4.9%

IND -14.6%

SAC +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	SAC	NBA	IND	SAC	NBA
this game	14.9	15.9	15.4	103.2	110.9	104.5
season	15.3	14.7		101.3	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.3		106.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.5	14.4	14.3	15.2	14.9
SAC	12.7	16.9	17.0	17.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Diogu	9	9	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-3	2	15.8	14.8	1.00	21.1	15.4	5.73
Shawne Williams	9	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.02	-2	-2	0	12.7	15.1	-2.44	15.0	16.0	-1.04
Mike Dunleavy	72	73	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.43	10	-14	24	14.2	16.8	-2.58	17.1	11.7	5.37
Danny Granger	64	61	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-9	14	15.0	14.7	0.24	15.3	17.2	-1.83
Jeff Foster	31	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	3	-10	16.6	14.0	2.53	17.1	15.4	1.67
Darrell Armstrong	31	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	1	-6	15.5	14.6	0.91	16.7	15.6	1.10
Rawle Marshall	5	7	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	6	-16	20.2	14.6	5.62	13.6	16.1	-2.57
Orien Greene	32	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	1	-6	16.6	14.0	2.55	16.3	15.8	0.53
Troy Murphy	76	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-5	6	14.2	17.6	-3.45	15.4	18.0	-2.59
Jermaine O'Neal	74	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.38	-1	-3	2	14.8	15.3	-0.53	15.4	18.2	-2.76
Jamaal Tinsley	72	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	1	-6	14.3	16.6	-2.29	15.2	18.3	-3.06

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	53	56	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-3	10	16.6	15.0	1.64	14.9	14.9	0.00
Brad Miller	63	63	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	0	4	15.5	16.9	-1.44	15.0	14.5	0.52
Kevin Martin	78	80	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	-1	6	15.7	17.1	-1.33	14.6	16.2	-1.57
Corliss Williamson	39	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	5	-6	17.6	14.7	2.85	15.0	14.7	0.30
John Salmons	64	66	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	0	4	15.4	17.3	-1.93	14.9	14.9	0.02
Mike Bibby	62	63	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.44	-7	11	-18	15.4	17.1	-1.71	15.5	13.6	1.88
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	38	40	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	2	0	16.6	15.5	1.08	14.7	15.0	-0.34
Kenny Thomas	44	46	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	1	2	14.6	17.2	-2.60	14.9	14.8	0.12
Ronnie Price	19	21	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	1	2	18.6	15.2	3.39	13.3	15.3	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.87,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.94,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, DAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.94,1,1	93.9%
MIA 113, TOR 120	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.91,1,1	93.6%
CHI 98, LAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.98,1,1	93.5%