NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	6.1 [566]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +25.5%
Toronto Raptors	120		Comeback	1.2 [895]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -10.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.03	-0.01	24	52%	0.14	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.21	0.07	0.13	15	77%	0.18	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.04	0.05	12	63%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.04
Dorell Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	18	52%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Daequan Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	29%	0.00	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
James Jones	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.00	1	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Shavlik Randolph	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.16	0.12	0.02	14	71%	0.28	2	-0.02	13	69%	-0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.11	0.00	14	73%	0.28	4	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.08	-0.02	9	73%	0.26	4	-0.10	8	100%	0.06
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.05	0.06	9	77%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	82%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	64%	0.02	4	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	6	38%	-0.05	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.5	30.3	15.8	32.2	1.8	41.2	152.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +43.2%

TOR +21.6%

MIA -8.6%

MIA -6.3%

TOR +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	15.3	114.1	123.7	106.0
season	16.2	15.0		104.4	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		111.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	15.5	15.2	14.7	14.8
TOR	13.8	12.7	17.7	14.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shavlik Randolph	17	16	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.01	5	-12	17	15.4	14.7	0.72	14.2	14.6	-0.45
Joel Anthony	31	29	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-10	13	14.9	14.8	0.12	14.9	14.4	0.52
James Jones	72	70	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.32	10	-17	27	13.8	17.6	-3.81	15.0	13.5	1.50
Dorell Wright	11	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	0	-7	16.2	14.6	1.53	13.7	14.7	-0.97
Carlos Arroyo	26	26	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	2	-11	17.2	14.0	3.17	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Mario Chalmers	78	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.37	2	-9	11	14.5	15.9	-1.32	14.8	13.7	1.15
Dwyane Wade	86	85	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.33	0	-7	7	14.5	17.2	-2.78	14.6	14.0	0.65
Daequan Cook	26	26	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.10	-17	10	-27	16.3	14.3	1.97	12.6	15.3	-2.67
Jermaine O'Neal	68	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	3	-13	14.8	14.9	-0.12	14.4	14.9	-0.52
Michael Beasley	80	79	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	5	-17	14.9	14.6	0.30	14.8	13.6	1.24

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	81	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-4	15	14.3	15.7	-1.34	15.1	13.8	1.27
Jarrett Jack	62	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-7	21	14.2	15.2	-0.99	14.6	15.2	-0.59
Chris Bosh	71	73	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	1	5	14.6	14.3	0.30	13.4	18.8	-5.36
Jose Calderon	78	78	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	4	-1	14.3	15.8	-1.59	14.6	15.7	-1.08
Marco Belinelli	28	29	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.10	14	-7	21	14.0	14.8	-0.85	16.4	14.2	2.26
Hedo Turkoglu	66	71	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.12	6	1	5	14.6	14.5	0.17	13.4	18.4	-4.93
DeMar DeRozan	44	43	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.28	-7	14	-21	15.3	14.0	1.33	16.4	13.6	2.75
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	14	15	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	4	-1	12.9	14.9	-2.00	15.3	14.7	0.61
Amir Johnson	28	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.14	-6	13	-19	15.9	14.0	1.81	17.3	13.7	3.61
Sonny Weems	13	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.20	-9	16	-25	16.7	14.2	2.45	16.2	14.6	1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, GSW 113	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.82,0.8,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.98,0.96,1	93.6%
IND 98, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.87,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.94,0.95,1	93.6%
CHA 92, LAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.71,0.94,0.91,1	93.1%