NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	7.9 [281]		MVP	Mark Blount (MIN): +27.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Comeback	5.9 [286]		LVP	Steve Blake (DEN): -44.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.27	0.00	0.25	-0.01	21	54%	0.41	4	-0.14	10	80%	0.07
Nene	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.05	0.03	11	67%	0.16	1	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.04	7	64%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.01	0.06	-0.07	-0.00	9	61%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.01	10	60%	0.03	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.44	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.39,-0.44	-0.18	-0.28	-0.02	8	25%	-0.19	6	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.09	0.21	0.02	19	60%	0.31	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Randy Foye	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.11	0.11	-0.08	0.17	-0.02	9	40%	0.18	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.05
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	6	62%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	14	56%	0.04	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	75%	0.11	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	13	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	12	28%	-0.14	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	10	30%	-0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	26.9	15.0	24.3	2.4	35.4	129.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -16.3%

DEN -4.3%

MIN +41.2%

MIN +33.1%

DEN -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	14.9	16.4	15.4	104.4	105.3	104.5
season	14.0	15.4		105.8	101.9
opponent	15.6	15.3		105.8	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.4	16.3	14.1	14.5	14.9
MIN	18.1	14.3	16.5	16.8	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	32	34	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.22	-2	-3	1	15.4	14.6	0.85	18.1	15.5	2.62
Reggie Evans	9	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-1	-3	18.8	14.4	4.36	14.1	16.7	-2.59
DerMarr Johnson	13	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-1	-3	16.8	14.5	2.33	15.0	16.7	-1.66
J.R. Smith	44	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.12	-9	4	-13	15.4	14.3	1.04	16.1	16.7	-0.54
Linas Kleiza	53	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.51	7	-12	19	14.3	15.7	-1.44	16.3	16.6	-0.36
Steve Blake	77	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-4	3	14.5	16.8	-2.33	16.7	15.0	1.66
Nene	68	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	-4	3	14.4	16.4	-2.00	16.5	16.2	0.28
Carmelo Anthony	84	88	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	3	-11	14.9	14.5	0.38	16.5	15.7	0.80
Marcus Camby	70	73	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.53	-3	-2	-1	14.7	15.5	-0.89	16.1	17.5	-1.37

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	53	50	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.54	2	3	-1	15.6	17.5	-1.90	14.0	16.0	-2.01
Mark Blount	63	58	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.51	2	3	-1	16.7	15.7	1.00	14.7	15.2	-0.52
Ricky Davis	67	62	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.45	3	2	1	16.1	17.1	-0.98	14.3	16.1	-1.76
Kevin Garnett	84	81	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	16.2	17.9	-1.66	14.8	15.7	-0.90
Trenton Hassell	62	59	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.43	-3	8	-11	17.3	14.7	2.57	14.3	15.9	-1.65
Mark Madsen	20	19	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.03	7	-2	9	16.4	16.4	0.04	16.1	14.5	1.58
Rashad McCants	47	47	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.15	8	-3	11	15.8	17.1	-1.30	15.3	14.4	0.93
Marko Jaric	13	13	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	3	-1	14.8	16.7	-1.91	18.0	14.3	3.68
Mike James	41	40	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.19	3	2	1	17.5	15.6	1.90	16.0	14.0	2.01
Craig Smith	20	21	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.13	-4	9	-13	16.9	16.3	0.62	14.9	14.9	0.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.45,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 80, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.43,0.58,1	91.1%
TOR 86, NJN 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.58,1	91.0%
MEM 86, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.29,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.11,0.15,0.33,0.73,1	90.9%