NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	8.1 [253]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +49.4%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	54.2 [17]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -12.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.33	0.14	0.19	-0.00	10	86%	0.35	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.05	0.02	12	84%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.01	19	50%	0.10	4	-0.13	10	80%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	7	39%	0.00	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11	0.00	-0.11	0.01	3	50%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.22
Tony Parker	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.01	-0.12	-0.00	15	47%	-0.10	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.09

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.49	0.49	0.19	0.31	0.01	20	69%	0.53	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.45	0.45	0.12	0.35	0.02	14	75%	0.65	4	-0.19	12	67%	-0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.08	0.01	11	70%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.07	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	30.0	16.5	24.7	2.6	36.0	137.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +56.0%

ORL +25.8%

SAS -18.8%

SAS -8.6%

SAS -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	17.0	15.7	15.4	118.2	120.5	104.5
season	16.2	15.9		107.5	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.0	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	17.4	18.8	17.0	17.0
ORL	15.6	16.1	15.5	15.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	36	33	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.12	2	-4	6	16.7	17.2	-0.50	15.5	15.9	-0.31
Robert Horry	16	15	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.11	6	-8	14	15.7	17.3	-1.59	21.3	14.6	6.66
Michael Finley	39	40	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-7	12	16.5	17.4	-0.85	17.7	14.1	3.55
Jacque Vaughn	27	26	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	1	-4	16.3	17.3	-1.00	17.1	15.2	1.90
Brent Barry	61	60	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	5	-12	17.8	15.3	2.49	15.4	16.4	-1.01
Tony Parker	69	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-5	8	17.2	16.4	0.79	15.3	17.5	-2.21
Bruce Bowen	29	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.45	3	-5	8	16.6	17.2	-0.60	16.7	15.2	1.49
Francisco Elson	31	32	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.37	-7	5	-12	16.5	17.2	-0.73	14.4	16.5	-2.04
Manu Ginobili	60	59	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.45	-5	3	-8	17.1	16.7	0.40	14.3	18.7	-4.40
Tim Duncan	72	74	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.47	-7	5	-12	17.4	15.2	2.20	15.2	18.6	-3.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	42	43	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.72	4	-2	6	14.5	16.8	-2.28	16.1	17.8	-1.66
Jameer Nelson	73	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-7	16	15.2	18.3	-3.13	17.5	14.3	3.15
Carlos Arroyo	55	54	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.40	9	-7	16	16.1	15.2	0.84	16.8	17.2	-0.40
JJ Redick	57	56	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.44	7	-5	12	15.9	15.5	0.44	16.9	17.2	-0.31
Dwight Howard	81	81	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-2	6	15.3	21.1	-5.87	17.0	16.3	0.76
Darko Milicic	60	60	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.05	-2	4	-6	15.3	16.7	-1.48	17.5	15.9	1.55
Keith Bogans	32	32	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	9	-16	15.1	16.1	-0.96	17.2	16.9	0.31
Travis Diener	10	8	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	12	-22	19.1	15.3	3.79	15.6	17.1	-1.50
Bo Outlaw	30	31	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.19	-4	6	-10	19.6	13.8	5.81	16.5	17.2	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.05,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 90, IND 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.24,0.32,0.53,0.4,0.46,0.25,0.45,0.15,0.16,1	89.8%
PHI 73, ORL 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.28,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.15,1	89.3%
HOU 94, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.18,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.33,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.42,1	89.3%