NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Excitement	8.9 [145]		MVP	Craig Smith (MIN): +38.4%
Seattle SuperSonics	102		Comeback	19.6 [87]		LVP	Trenton Hassell (MIN): -28.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.38,0.38	0.20	0.18	0.00	16	70%	0.38	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Mark Blount	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	11	54%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.02	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.02
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	60%	0.16	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	6	64%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Marko Jaric	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.22	-0.06	-0.20	-0.04	16	46%	-0.15	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.04
Trenton Hassell	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.28	0.01	-0.29	0.01	7	57%	-0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.27	0.27	0.06	0.22	0.01	13	61%	0.29	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.07
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.27,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	30	55%	0.25	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.04	11	58%	0.06	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	9	43%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	13	48%	-0.01	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	28%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	0.7	30.0	14.8	22.7	1.0	35.6	130.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +44.7%

MIN -10.0%

MIN -21.3%

SEA +38.9%

MIN -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SEA	NBA	MIN	SEA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.5	15.4	109.9	113.3	104.5
season	15.4	15.4		101.9	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.6		108.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.6	16.1	15.5	16.3	15.3
SEA	16.4	17.4	15.2	17.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	38	38	0.41	-0.91	1.33	0.21	7	-9	16	17.5	13.8	3.71	17.4	15.8	1.57
Mark Madsen	16	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-2	2	18.7	14.6	4.06	18.5	16.1	2.45
Mike James	42	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	1	-4	14.6	15.9	-1.30	16.4	16.5	-0.09
Craig Smith	43	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-6	10	16.2	14.6	1.56	16.7	16.3	0.42
Mark Blount	50	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	6	-14	14.6	16.3	-1.69	15.6	17.5	-1.91
Randy Foye	49	49	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.44	1	-3	4	15.9	14.6	1.30	16.5	16.4	0.09
Kevin Garnett	73	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-2	2	14.6	18.2	-3.52	16.5	16.4	0.06
Ricky Davis	73	70	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	2	-6	14.1	20.2	-6.09	16.5	16.5	-0.01
Trenton Hassell	71	72	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.58	-7	5	-12	15.4	15.0	0.37	16.0	18.4	-2.37

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	77	76	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.56	10	-8	18	16.7	15.5	1.20	14.8	18.1	-3.34
Mickael Gelabale	66	67	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.60	8	-6	14	16.5	16.4	0.16	14.6	17.5	-2.88
Nick Collison	79	80	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.55	5	-3	8	16.0	20.3	-4.31	14.9	18.4	-3.44
Earl Watson	47	47	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.33	12	-10	22	15.7	17.3	-1.56	14.9	15.8	-0.97
Ray Allen	82	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-2	6	16.5	16.7	-0.29	15.3	15.9	-0.56
Luke Ridnour	51	51	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.14	-12	14	-26	17.2	15.5	1.68	15.8	14.7	1.14
Andre Brown	11	12	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	7	-12	20.3	16.0	4.31	17.9	14.9	2.97
Johan Petro	13	14	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.15	-6	8	-14	15.5	16.7	-1.20	18.5	14.8	3.73
Damien Wilkins	24	24	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.16	-6	8	-14	16.4	16.5	-0.16	17.5	14.6	2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.78,0.79,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.53,0.45,0.6,0.4,0.25,0.11,0.17,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 114, WAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.27,1	91.1%
GSW 91, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.09,1	91.1%
BOS 101, NYK 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.34,0.42,1	90.4%