NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	101		Excitement	6.3 [565]		MVP	Boris Diaw (PHX): +17.8%
Phoenix Suns	107		Comeback	1.4 [1227]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -22.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.01	0.04	15	76%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.02	0.00	4	125%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	12	54%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	9	45%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	17%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.13	0.05	-0.15	0.03	12	60%	-0.04	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.02
Grant Hill	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	9	33%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22	-0.09	-0.14	-0.01	12	38%	-0.12	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.03

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.01	12	70%	0.21	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	10	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	15	62%	0.09	3	-0.05	7	71%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	67%	0.09	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.09	0.01	15	53%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	29.5	16.8	26.7	2.0	32.1	132.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +47.7%

PHX +3.1%

PHX +0.2%

ORL -2.6%

PHX +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	PHX	NBA	ORL	PHX	NBA
this game	16.7	13.7	15.4	106.3	113.8	104.5
season	15.9	13.8		103.4	112.2
opponent	16.0	15.7		105.0	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.3	17.5	14.4	18.0	16.7
PHX	13.2	15.3	12.8	13.9	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	32	34	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.16	7	-13	20	17.1	16.5	0.59	14.6	13.2	1.35
Keith Bogans	38	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.14	3	-9	12	17.6	16.2	1.40	14.1	13.4	0.70
Jameer Nelson	54	55	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-11	16	16.3	17.3	-1.02	13.4	14.2	-0.78
Tony Battie	32	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-3	0	16.0	17.1	-1.11	12.6	14.3	-1.67
Keyon Dooling	50	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-11	16	17.2	16.2	1.02	13.7	13.8	-0.14
Darko Milicic	54	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-7	8	17.4	15.9	1.55	14.9	12.2	2.65
Carlos Arroyo	40	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	3	-12	17.7	16.0	1.75	14.4	13.2	1.22
Grant Hill	58	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.17	-10	4	-14	15.9	18.0	-2.02	13.7	13.7	0.07
Hedo Turkoglu	57	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.16	-12	6	-18	15.8	18.2	-2.37	13.0	14.7	-1.74
Dwight Howard	60	57	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.08	-17	11	-28	16.8	16.7	0.08	13.0	14.8	-1.75

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	73	75	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.20	14	-8	22	13.8	13.3	0.50	16.3	18.4	-2.17
Shawn Marion	63	66	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.19	14	-8	22	13.3	14.5	-1.23	16.9	16.3	0.61
Raja Bell	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.32	6	0	6	13.5	14.6	-1.06	17.1	15.5	1.58
Boris Diaw	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	1	4	13.6	14.9	-1.34	16.5	18.1	-1.54
Amar'e Stoudemire	60	60	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-3	12	14.1	13.0	1.13	16.4	17.3	-0.82
James Jones	37	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.14	-5	11	-16	13.9	13.6	0.32	17.0	16.6	0.38
Leandro Barbosa	42	44	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.15	-6	12	-18	14.0	13.5	0.41	17.6	16.0	1.59
Kurt Thomas	35	35	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.12	-7	13	-20	13.8	13.7	0.17	16.3	17.0	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.9,0.75,0.9,0.76,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 85, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.96,1	93.1%
DAL 93, MIN 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	93.0%
DET 98, ATL 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.97,1,1	92.8%