NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	98		Excitement	5.6 [709]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +15.8%
Atlanta Hawks	105		Comeback	1.4 [846]		LVP	Andre Drummond (DET): -11.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Leuer	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	16	65%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	14	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	17	53%	0.08	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	11	46%	-0.01	5	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Andre Drummond	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	12	48%	0.03	6	-0.15	7	71%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	13	69%	0.19	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	0.00	7	59%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	20	54%	0.13	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	8	53%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	14	53%	0.05	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Malcolm Delaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	4	25%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	8	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	29.2	15.7	26.3	1.8	43.1	140.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +26.7%

ATL +7.6%

ATL +2.5%

ATL +10.5%

ATL +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.3	14.8	101.0	109.4	107.7
season	15.0	14.4		105.0	104.2
opponent	14.9	15.1		104.6	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.5	16.3	14.7	14.1	14.6
ATL	12.7	15.0	17.2	16.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	27	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-6	5	15.9	14.1	1.75	14.2	15.7	-1.46
Stanley Johnson	43	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	-1	-5	15.9	13.5	2.41	15.0	15.5	-0.49
Reggie Jackson	67	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.30	1	-8	9	14.3	15.2	-0.93	14.7	16.5	-1.80
Andre Drummond	69	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	14.2	15.5	-1.23	15.7	14.2	1.46
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	79	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-4	1	13.9	17.6	-3.71	15.5	14.2	1.28
Ish Smith	49	47	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.01	-13	6	-19	15.9	13.2	2.65	15.6	14.9	0.74
Tobias Harris	77	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-4	1	14.6	14.4	0.24	15.2	15.7	-0.57
Jon Leuer	74	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	13.8	17.3	-3.50	15.5	14.4	1.16

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Schroder	65	66	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.17	9	-2	11	14.7	16.5	-1.85	13.9	16.0	-2.03
Mike Muscala	35	35	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.08	16	-9	25	14.9	15.4	-0.50	16.1	13.7	2.43
Kyle Korver	55	56	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	3	1	15.5	15.0	0.50	15.2	13.7	1.52
Paul Millsap	75	76	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	5	-3	15.5	14.3	1.19	13.9	17.0	-3.14
Dwight Howard	61	59	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	5	-3	15.7	14.5	1.17	14.1	15.3	-1.15
Tim Hardaway Jr.	34	34	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	-2	11	14.3	15.8	-1.45	14.9	14.4	0.45
Thabo Sefolosha	49	49	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.28	-4	11	-15	15.3	15.2	0.05	13.1	16.1	-3.04
Kent Bazemore	57	59	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	8	-9	15.3	15.2	0.18	14.9	14.2	0.71
Malcolm Delaney	30	30	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	6	-5	16.1	14.9	1.27	15.9	14.0	1.90
Kris Humphries	19	21	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	10	-13	14.9	15.4	-0.46	16.4	14.1	2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 102, SAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.81,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.8%
WAS 112, PHI 120	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
LAL 85, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.72,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.8%