NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	102		Excitement	4.4 [976]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (SAS): +22.3%
San Antonio Spurs	111		Comeback	1.5 [1185]		LVP	Devin Harris (UTA): -11.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Watson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	0.00	0.06	15	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02
Jeremy Evans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	64%	0.08	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gordon Hayward	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	64%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.03	13	63%	0.07	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
CJ Miles	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.03	0.04	11	43%	-0.07	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.02	-0.04	10	83%	0.23	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.05	-0.02	6	60%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	7	75%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	65%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.03	7	65%	0.05	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02
DeJuan Blair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	55%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	0%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	1.6	27.2	14.8	25.3	1.7	27.3	125.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.4%

SAS +5.5%

UTA -5.1%

SAS +7.8%

SAS +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.8	15.5	109.7	123.3	105.7
season	15.9	15.5		106.4	109.3
opponent	15.2	15.3		103.6	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.5	16.2	16.2	14.5	15.6
SAS	14.5	17.3	14.3	17.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Weaver	20	20	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-10	11	15.0	15.8	-0.82	17.4	15.4	2.08
CJ Miles	36	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-5	1	15.6	15.7	-0.06	15.0	16.3	-1.27
Jeremy Evans	41	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-5	1	15.2	16.0	-0.85	16.7	15.2	1.47
Paul Millsap	43	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.15	-3	-6	3	16.0	15.3	0.66	15.4	16.2	-0.79
Derrick Favors	55	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-8	7	15.7	15.6	0.11	16.1	15.4	0.65
Earl Watson	55	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	15.1	16.5	-1.40	17.1	14.0	3.11
Gordon Hayward	68	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.11	-10	1	-11	15.8	15.1	0.72	14.6	18.9	-4.27
Al Jefferson	70	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	0	-9	15.9	14.7	1.20	15.7	16.1	-0.34
Devin Harris	77	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	1	-11	15.8	14.8	1.01	15.6	17.1	-1.56

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	59	57	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-2	13	16.8	13.9	2.94	15.4	16.0	-0.62
Richard Jefferson	64	67	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	-1	11	15.3	17.0	-1.69	16.1	14.5	1.64
Manu Ginobili	53	57	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	4	1	15.0	17.1	-2.12	14.9	16.9	-1.98
Gary Neal	47	47	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	3	3	16.4	15.2	1.19	14.0	17.3	-3.28
Tiago Splitter	36	36	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	10	-11	16.8	15.2	1.57	14.8	16.2	-1.42
Tim Duncan	42	43	0.23	0.28	-0.05	-0.04	9	0	9	14.6	16.9	-2.28	17.0	14.5	2.43
Tony Parker	54	58	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	9	-9	15.4	16.4	-1.02	16.9	13.6	3.33
Matt Bonner	42	43	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.14	1	8	-7	15.2	16.4	-1.21	15.5	15.8	-0.29
DeJuan Blair	44	49	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	9	-9	16.9	14.8	2.10	15.2	16.1	-0.93
Steve Novak	9	8	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	5	-1	16.9	15.7	1.17	19.9	15.2	4.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.81,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 85, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.72,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
LAL 92, ATL 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
DET 98, ATL 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.97,1,1	94.8%